Background The proportion of asymptomatic carriers and transmission risk factors of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among household and non-household contacts remains unclear. In Singapore, extensive contact tracing by the Ministry of Health for every diagnosed COVID-19 case, and legally enforced quarantine and intensive health surveillance of close contacts provided a rare opportunity to determine asymptomatic attack rates and SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk factors among community close contacts of patients with COVID-19. Methods This retrospective cohort study involved all close contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Singapore, identified between Jan 23 and April 3, 2020. Household contacts were defined as individuals who shared a residence with the index COVID-19 case. Non-household close contacts were defined as those who had contact for at least 30 min within 2 m of the index case. All patients with COVID-19 in Singapore received inpatient treatment, with access restricted to health-care staff. All close contacts were quarantined for 14 days with thrice-daily symptom monitoring via telephone. Symptomatic contacts underwent PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2. Secondary clinical attack rates were derived from the prevalence of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 among close contacts. Consenting contacts underwent serology testing and detailed exposure risk assessment. Bayesian modelling was used to estimate the prevalence of missed diagnoses and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2-positive cases. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine SARS-CoV-2 transmission risk factors. Findings Between Jan 23 and April 3, 2020, 7770 close contacts (1863 household contacts, 2319 work contacts, and 3588 social contacts) linked to 1114 PCR-confirmed index cases were identified. Symptom-based PCR testing detected 188 COVID-19 cases, and 7582 close contacts completed quarantine without a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test. Among 7518 (96·8%) of the 7770 close contacts with complete data, the secondary clinical attack rate was 5·9% (95% CI 4·9–7·1) for 1779 household contacts, 1·3% (0·9–1·9) for 2231 work contacts, and 1·3% (1·0–1·7) for 3508 social contacts. Bayesian analysis of serology and symptom data obtained from 1150 close contacts (524 household contacts, 207 work contacts, and 419 social contacts) estimated that a symptom-based PCR-testing strategy missed 62% (95% credible interval 55–69) of COVID-19 diagnoses, and 36% (27–45) of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infection were asymptomatic. Sharing a bedroom (multivariable odds ratio [OR] 5·38 [95% CI 1·82–15·84]; p=0·0023) and being spoken to by an index case for 30 min or longer (7·86 [3·86–16·02]; p<0·0001) were associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission among household contacts. Among non-household contacts, exposure to more than one case (multivariable OR 3·92 [95% CI 2·07–7·40], p<0·0001), being spoken to by an index case for 30 min or longer (2·67 [1·21–5·88]; p=0·...

Background Rapid identification of COVID-19 cases, which is crucial to outbreak containment efforts, is challenging due to the lack of pathognomonic symptoms and in settings with limited capacity for specialized nucleic acid–based reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. Methods This retrospective case-control study involves subjects (7–98 years) presenting at the designated national outbreak screening center and tertiary care hospital in Singapore for SARS-CoV-2 testing from 26 January to 16 February 2020. COVID-19 status was confirmed by PCR testing of sputum, nasopharyngeal swabs, or throat swabs. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and exposure-risk variables ascertainable at presentation were analyzed to develop an algorithm for estimating the risk of COVID-19. Model development used Akaike’s information criterion in a stepwise fashion to build logistic regression models, which were then translated into prediction scores. Performance was measured using receiver operating characteristic curves, adjusting for overconfidence using leave-one-out cross-validation. Results The study population included 788 subjects, of whom 54 (6.9%) were SARS-CoV-2 positive and 734 (93.1%) were SARS-CoV-2 negative. The median age was 34 years, and 407 (51.7%) were female. Using leave-one-out cross-validation, all the models incorporating clinical tests (models 1, 2, and 3) performed well with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) of 0.91, 0.88, and 0.88, respectively. In comparison, model 4 had an AUC of 0.65. Conclusions Rapidly ascertainable clinical and laboratory data could identify individuals at high risk of COVID-19 and enable prioritization of PCR testing and containment efforts. Basic laboratory test results were crucial to prediction models.

Situation Report-12 SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours Globally 11953 confirmed (2128 new) China 11821 confirmed (2102 new) 1795 severe (268 new) 259 deaths (46 new) Outside of China 132 confirmed (26 new) 23 countries (4 new) WHO RISK ASSESSMENT China Very High Regional Level High Global Level High *The situation report includes information reported to WHO Geneva by 10 AM Additional instances of human-to-human transmission outside China were reported (see further information under Technical Focus).