IMPORTANCEThe US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) is updating its 2008 colorectal cancer (CRC) screening recommendations.OBJECTIVE To inform the USPSTF by modeling the benefits, burden, and harms of CRC screening strategies; estimating the optimal ages to begin and end screening; and identifying a set of model-recommendable strategies that provide similar life-years gained (LYG) and a comparable balance between LYG and screening burden. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSComparative modeling with 3 microsimulation models of a hypothetical cohort of previously unscreened US 40-year-olds with no prior CRC diagnosis.EXPOSURES Screening with sensitive guaiac-based fecal occult blood testing, fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), multitarget stool DNA testing, flexible sigmoidoscopy with or without stool testing, computed tomographic colonography (CTC), or colonoscopy starting at age 45, 50, or 55 years and ending at age 75, 80, or 85 years. Screening intervals varied by modality. Full adherence for all strategies was assumed. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESLife-years gained compared with no screening (benefit), lifetime number of colonoscopies required (burden), lifetime number of colonoscopy complications (harms), and ratios of incremental burden and benefit (efficiency ratios) per 1000 40-year-olds. RESULTSThe screening strategies provided LYG in the range of 152 to 313 per 1000 40-year-olds. Lifetime colonoscopy burden per 1000 persons ranged from fewer than 900 (FIT every 3 years from ages 55-75 years) to more than 7500 (colonoscopy screening every 5 years from ages 45-85 years). Harm from screening was at most 23 complications per 1000 persons screened. Strategies with screening beginning at age 50 years generally provided more LYG as well as more additional LYG per additional colonoscopy than strategies with screening beginning at age 55 years. There were limited empirical data to support a start age of 45 years. For persons adequately screened up to age 75 years, additional screening yielded small increases in LYG relative to the increase in colonoscopy burden. With screening from ages 50 to 75 years, 4 strategies yielded a comparable balance of screening burden and similar LYG (median LYG per 1000 across the models): colonoscopy every 10 years (270 LYG); sigmoidoscopy every 10 years with annual FIT (256 LYG); CTC every 5 years (248 LYG); and annual FIT (244 LYG). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEIn this microsimulation modeling study of a previously unscreened population undergoing CRC screening that assumed 100% adherence, the strategies of colonoscopy every 10 years, annual FIT, sigmoidoscopy every 10 years with annual FIT, and CTC every 5 years performed from ages 50 through 75 years provided similar LYG and a comparable balance of benefit and screening burden.

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A B S T R A C T PurposeWe designed this study to evaluate the association of colonoscopy with colorectal cancer (CRC) death in the United States by site of CRC and endoscopist specialty. MethodsWe designed a case-control study using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare data. We identified patients (cases) diagnosed with CRC age 70 to 89 years from January 1998 through December 2002 who died as a result of CRC by 2007. We selected three matched controls without cancer for each case. Controls were assigned a referent date (date of diagnosis of the case). Colonoscopy performed from January 1991 through 6 months before the diagnosis/referent date was our primary exposure. We compared exposure to colonoscopy in cases and controls by using conditional logistic regression controlling for covariates, stratified by site of CRC. We determined endoscopist specialty by linkage to the American Medical Association (AMA) Masterfile. We assessed whether the association between colonoscopy and CRC death varied with endoscopist specialty. Results We identified ConclusionColonoscopy is associated with a reduced risk of death from CRC, with the association considerably and consistently stronger for distal versus proximal CRC. The overall association was strongest if colonoscopy was performed by a gastroenterologist.