ObjectivesBecause X-linked myotubular myopathy (XLMTM) is a rare neuromuscular disease caused by mutations in the MTM1 gene with a large phenotypic heterogeneity, to ensure clinical trial readiness, it was mandatory to better quantify disease burden and determine best outcome measures.MethodsWe designed an international prospective and longitudinal natural history study in patients with XLMTM and assessed muscle strength and motor and respiratory functions over the first year of follow-up. The humoral immunity against adeno-associated virus serotype 8 was also monitored.ResultsForty-five male patients aged 3.5 months to 56.8 years were enrolled between May 2014 and May 2017. Thirteen patients had a mild phenotype (no ventilation support), 7 had an intermediate phenotype (ventilation support less than 12 hours a day), and 25 had a severe phenotype (ventilation support 12 or more hours a day). Most strength and motor function assessments could be performed even in very weak patients. Motor Function Measure 32 total score, grip and pinch strengths, and forced vital capacity, forced expiratory volume in the first second of exhalation, and peak cough flow measures discriminated the 3 groups of patients. Disease history revealed motor milestone loss in several patients. Longitudinal data on 37 patients showed that the Motor Function Measure 32 total score significantly decreased by 2%. Of the 38 patients evaluated, anti–adeno-associated virus type 8 neutralizing activity was detected in 26% with 2 patients having an inhibitory titer >1:10.ConclusionsOur data confirm that XLMTM is slowly progressive for male survivors regardless of their phenotype and provide outcome validation and natural history data that can support clinical development in this population.ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT02057705.

Objective To understand the natural disease upper limb progression over 3 years of ambulatory and non‐ambulatory patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) using functional assessments and quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and to exploratively identify prognostic factors. Methods Forty boys with DMD (22 non‐ambulatory and 18 ambulatory) with deletions in dystrophin that make them eligible for exon 53‐skipping therapy were included. Clinical assessments, including Brooke score, motor function measure (MFM), hand grip and key pinch strength, and upper limb distal coordination and endurance (MoviPlate), were performed every 6 months and quantitative MRI of fat fraction (FF) and lean muscle cross sectional area (flexor and extensor muscles) were performed yearly. Results In the whole population, there were strong nonlinear correlations between outcome measures. In non‐ambulatory patients, annual changes over the course of 3 years were detected with high sensitivity standard response mean (|SRM| ≥0.8) for quantitative MRI‐based FF, hand grip and key pinch, and MFM. Boys who presented with a FF<20% and a grip strength >27% were able to bring a glass to their mouth and retained this ability in the following 3 years. Ambulatory patients with grip strength >35% of predicted value and FF <10% retained ambulation 3 years later. Interpretation We demonstrate that continuous decline in upper limb strength, function, and MRI measured muscle structure can be reliably measured in ambulatory and non‐ambulatory boys with DMD with high SRM and strong correlations between outcomes. Our results suggest that a combination of grip strength and FF can be used to predict important motor milestones.

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The small sample sizes inherent in rare and pediatric disease settings offer significant challenges for clinical trial design. In such settings, Bayesian adaptive trial methods can often pay dividends, allowing the sensible incorporation of auxiliary data and other relevant information to bolster that collected by the trial itself. Previous work has also included the use of one-arm trials augmented by the participants' own natural history data, from which the future course of the disease in the absence of intervention can be predicted. Patient response can then be defined by the degree to which post-intervention observations are inconsistent with the predicted "natural" trajectory. While such trials offer obvious advantages in efficiency and ethical hazard (since they expose no new patients to a placebo, anathema to patients or their parents and caregivers), they can offer no protection against bias arising from the presence of any "placebo effect," the tendency of patients to improve merely by being in the trial. In this paper, we investigate the impact of both static and transient placebo effects on one-arm responder studies of this type, as well as two-arm versions that incorporate a small concurrent placebo group but still borrow strength from the natural history data. We also propose more traditional Bayesian changepoint models that specify a parametric functional form for the patient's post-intervention trajectory, which in turn allow quantification of the treatment benefit in terms of the model parameters, rather than semi-parametrically in terms of a response relative to some "null" model. We compare the operating characteristics of our designs in the context of an ongoing investigation of centronuclear myopathies (CNMs), a group of congenital neuromuscular diseases whose most common and severe form is X-linked, affecting approximately 1 in 50,000 newborn boys. Our results indicate our two-arm responder and changepoint methods can offer protection against placebo effects, improving power while protecting the trial's Type I error rate. However, further research into innovative trial designs as well as ongoing dialog with regulatory authorities remain critically important in rare disease research.The members of the NatHis-MTM Study Group are listed in Acknowledgment.

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