We used a nonintrusive field experiment carried out at six sites -Wales (UK), Denmark (DK), the Netherlands (NL), Hungary (HU), Sardinia (Italy -IT), and Catalonia (Spain -SP) -along a climatic and latitudinal gradient to examine the response of plant species richness and primary productivity to warming and drought in shrubland ecosystems. The warming treatment raised the plot daily temperature by ca. 1 1C, while the drought treatment led to a reduction in soil moisture at the peak of the growing season that ranged from 26% at the SP site to 82% in the NL site. During the 7 years the experiment lasted (1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005), we used the pin-point method to measure the species composition of plant communities and plant biomass, litterfall, and shoot growth of the dominant plant species at each site. A significantly lower increase in the number of species pin-pointed per transect was found in the drought plots at the SP site, where the plant community was still in a process of recovering from a forest fire in 1994. No changes in species richness were found at the other sites, which were at a more mature and stable state of succession and, thus less liable to recruitment of new species. The relationship between annual biomass accumulation and temperature of the growing season was positive at the coldest site and negative at the warmest site. The warming treatment tended to increase the aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) at the northern sites. The relationship between annual biomass accumulation and soil moisture during the growing season was not significant at the wettest sites, but was positive at the driest sites. The drought treatment tended to reduce the ANPP in the NL, HU, IT, and SP sites. The responses to warming were very strongly related to the Gaussen aridity index (stronger responses the lower the aridity), whereas the responses to drought were not. Changes in the annual 2563 aboveground biomass accumulation, litterfall, and, thus, the ANPP, mirrored the interannual variation in climate conditions: the most outstanding change was a decrease in biomass accumulation and an increase in litterfall at most sites during the abnormally hot year of 2003. Species richness also tended to decrease in 2003 at all sites except the cold and wet UK site. Species-specific responses to warming were found in shoot growth: at the SP site, Globularia alypum was not affected, while the other dominant species, Erica multiflora, grew 30% more; at the UK site, Calluna vulgaris tended to grow more in the warming plots, while Empetrum nigrum tended to grow less. Drought treatment decreased plant growth in several studied species, although there were some species such as Pinus halepensis at the SP site or C. vulgaris at the UK site that were not affected. The magnitude of responses to warming and drought thus depended greatly on the differences between sites, years, and species and these multiple plant responses may be expected to have consequences at ecosystem and community level. Decreases in biodiver...

Summary 1.Recent findings indicate that the interactions among CO 2 , temperature and water can be substantial, and that the combined effects on the biological systems of several factors may not be predicted from experiments with one or a few factors. Therefore realistic multifactorial experiments involving a larger set of main factors are needed. 2. We describe a new Danish climate change-related field scale experiment, CLIMAITE, in a heath/ grassland ecosystem. CLIMAITE is a full factorial combination of elevated CO 2 , elevated temperature and prolonged summer drought. The manipulations are intended to mimic anticipated major environmental changes at the site by year 2075 as closely as possible. The impacts on ecosystem processes and functioning (at ecophysiological levels, through responses by individuals and communities to ecosystem-level responses) are investigated simultaneously. 3. The increase of [CO 2 ] closely corresponds with the scenarios for year 2075, while the warming treatment is at the lower end of the predictions and seems to be the most difficult treatment to increase without unwanted side effects on the other variables. The drought treatment follows predictions of increased frequency of drought periods in summer. The combination of the treatments does not create new unwanted side effects on the treatments relative to the treatments alone.

Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem, with recently disturbed sites responding to treatments. Furthermore, most of these responses are not rapid (2-5 years) but emerge over a longer term (7-14 years). These results suggest that successional state influences the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate change, and that ecosystems recovering from disturbances may be sensitive to even modest climatic changes. A research bias towards undisturbed ecosystems might thus lead to an underestimation of the impacts of climate change.

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