Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40–69 years in Europe. Methods and results  We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65–0.68) to 0.81 (0.76–0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion  SCORE2—a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations—enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

Background How coffee consumption relates to mortality in diverse European populations, with variable coffee preparation methods and customs, is unclear. Objectives To examine whether coffee consumption is associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in men and women. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Ten European countries. Participants A total of 521,330 men and women enrolled in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Main outcome measure Multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals(CIs) estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. The association of coffee with serum biomarkers of liver function, inflammation, and metabolic health was evaluated in the EPIC Biomarkers sub-cohort (n=14,800). Results During a mean follow-up of 16.4 years, 41,693 deaths occurred. Compared with non-consumers, participants in the highest quartile of coffee consumption experienced statistically significant lower all-cause mortality (Men: HR=0.88, 95%CI: 0.82–0.95; P-trend<0.001; Women: HR=0.93, 95%CI: 0.87–0.98; P-trend=0.009). These findings did not vary significantly by country. Inverse associations were observed for digestive disease mortality for men (HR=0.41, 95%CI: 0.32–0.54; P-trend<0.0001) and women (HR=0.60, 95%CI: 0.46–0.78; P-trend<0.0001). Among women only, there was a statistically significant inverse association between coffee and circulatory disease mortality, (HR=0.78, 95%CI: 0.68–0.90; P-trend<0.001), cerebrovascular disease mortality (HR=0.70, 95%CI: 0.55–0.90; P-trend=0.002), and a positive association between coffee and ovarian cancer mortality (HR 1.12, 95% CI: 1.02–1.23 P-trend 0.001). In the EPIC-biomarkers sub-cohort, higher coffee consumption was associated with lower serum alkaline phosphatase, alanine transaminase, aspartate transaminase, and C-reactive protein. Limitation Reverse causality may have led to spurious findings; however, results did not differ following exclusion of participants who died within 8-years of baseline. The study is also limited by a single assessment of coffee drinking habits at baseline. Conclusions These results confirm prior findings on the reduced risk of mortality associated with coffee drinking but additionally show that this relationship does not vary by country where coffee preparation and drinking habits may differ. The study also reports novel inverse relationships between coffee drinking and digestive disease mortality.