We utilize a variety of climate datasets to examine impacts of two mechanisms on precipitation in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) during northern-hemisphere summer. First, surface-pressure gradients draw moist air toward the GHA from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Congo Basin. Variability of the strength of these gradients strongly influences GHA precipitation totals and accounts for important phenomena such as the 1960s-1980s rainfall decline and devastating 1984 drought. Following the 1980s, precipitation variability became increasingly influenced by the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) region. Within this region, increases in sea-surface temperature, evaporation, and precipitation are linked with increased exports of dry mid-tropospheric air from the STIO region toward the GHA. Convergence of dry air above the GHA reduces local convection and precipitation. It also produces a clockwise circulation response near the ground that reduces moisture transports from the Congo Basin. Because precipitation originating in the Congo Basin has a unique isotopic signature, records of moisture transports from the Congo Basin may be preserved in the isotopic composition of annual tree rings in the Ethiopian Highlands. A negative trend in tree-ring oxygen-18 during the past half century suggests a decline in the proportion of precipitation originating from the Congo Basin. This trend may not be part of a natural cycle that will soon rebound because climate models characterize Indian Ocean warming as a principal signature of greenhouse-gas induced climate change. We therefore expect surface warming in the STIO region to continue to negatively impact GHA precipitation during northern-hemisphere summer.

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Dendrochronology is developing outside temperate and boreal regions. Over the past decade substantial progress has been made in Mediterranean and wet tropical regions. However, research in dry tropical regions, notably those of sub-Saharan Africa, has remained fragmentary. Here, we try to identify the unique challenges and opportunities of dendrochronology in the dry tropics. First, we briefly review the status of dendrochronology outside temperate and boreal regions with an emphasis on subSaharan Africa. Subsequently, we focus upon one of those areas where dendrochronology in the dry tropics is at the forefront of scientific advance: Ethiopia. A detailed review of tree ring studies in the lowlands and highlands highlights the complexity of ring formation and made us identify four major types of growth ring expression: anatomically not Trees DOI 10.1007/s00468-010-0521-y distinct rings, multiple rings per year, annual rings and multiple missing rings. This complex tree growth behaviour is associated with large-scale variations in precipitation regime (unimodal to multimodal) and relatively small-scale variations in tree sensitivity to water availability. Literature results are used to develop a scheme that can be used to predict differences in growth ring formation along gradients in these two factors. Because of the exceptional growth sensitivity of and the importance of local site conditions (topography, biological factors, etc.) for most trees sampled, those growing at the limits of their ecological amplitude are prone to possess multiple rings per year or multiple missing rings. In such circumstances, site selection should not always take place at the limits of the ecological amplitude of a species, but may sometimes have to be diverted to more mesic environments. Successful studies are now appearing, such as those reporting correlations between tree ring chronologies and Blue Nile river flows.