Amphibians are a suitable indicator group for monitoring possible negative direct or indirect effects of GMO cultivation at the individual and population level. Direct effects could occur in aquatic ecosystems via uptake of GM pollen or GM detritus by anuran larvae. However, indirect negative effects caused by changes in cultivation practices (changes in pesticide use, for instance) are more likely. The VDI Guideline 4333 aims to ensure comprehensive monitoring of the different life-stages of anuran species that are common in agricultural landscapes of Austria, Germany and Switzerland. The guideline includes a novel approach to tadpole monitoring. To assess immediate effects, tadpole, metamorph and adult deformation rates are compared with naturally occurring deformation rates. Adult population size, adult body condition and juvenile emergence are monitored over multiple years to assess long-term effects of GM crop cultivation on population viability. At each study site, monitoring has to be carried out at multiple amphibian breeding sites which differ in their exposure to GM crop cultivation. All monitoring data have to be stored in a central database for future meta-analyses. This will ultimately allow for generalized statements about the impact of GM crop cultivation on amphibians. Although specifically designed for GM crops, VDI Guideline 4333 may also serve as a model for studying the effects of a wider range of stressors on amphibian populations in agriculture and forestry. Susanne Böll et al. / BioRisk 8: 39-51 (2013) 40
For the first time, evidence of a submerged pine forest from the early Holocene can be documented in a central European lake. Subaquatic tree stumpswere discovered in Lake Giesenschlagsee at a depth of between 2 and 5 m using scuba divers, side-scan sonar and a remotely operated vehicle. Several erect stumps, anchored to the ground by roots, represent an in situ record of this former forest. Botanical determination revealed the stumps to be Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) with an individual tree age of about 80 years. The trees could not be dated by means of dendrochronology, as they are older than the regional reference chronology for pine. Radiocarbon ages from the wood range from 10 880AE210 to 10 370AE130 cal. a BP, which is equivalent to the mid-Preboreal to early Boreal biozones. The trees are rooted in sedge peat, which can be dated to this period as well, using pollen stratigraphical analysis. Tilting of the peat bed by 4 m indicates subsidence of the ground due to local dead ice melting, causing the trees to become submerged and preserved for millennia. Together with recently detected Lateglacial in situ tree occurrences in nearby lakes, the submerged pine forest at Giesenschlagsee represents a new and highly promising type of geo-bio-archive for the wider region. Comparable in situ pine remnants occur at some terrestrial (buried setting) and marine (submerged setting) sites in northern central Europe and beyond, but they partly differ in age. In general, the in situ pine finds document shifts of the zonal boreal forest ecosystem during the late Quaternary.
Starting in 2010, rapid-fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population declines in northwestern Europe heralded the emergence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), a salamander-pathogenic chytrid fungus. Bsal poses an imminent threat to global salamander diversity owing to its wide host range, high pathogenicity, and long-term persistence in ecosystems. While there is a pressing need to develop further research and conservation actions, data limitations inherent to recent pathogen emergence obscure necessary insights into Bsal disease ecology. Here, we use a hierarchical modeling framework to describe Bsal landscape epidemiology of outbreak sites in light of these methodological challenges. Using model selection and machine learning, we find that Bsal presence is associated with humid and relatively cool, stable climates. Outbreaks are generally located in areas characterized by low landscape heterogeneity and low steepness of slope. We further find an association between Bsal presence and high trail density, suggesting that human-mediated spread may increase risk for spillover between populations. We then use distribution modeling to show that favorable conditions occur in lowlands influenced by the North Sea, where increased survey effort is needed to determine how Bsal impacts local newt populations, but also in hill-and mountain ranges in northeastern France and the lower half of Germany. Finally, connectivity analyses suggest that these hill-and mountain ranges may act as stepping stones for further spread southward. Our results provide initial insight into regional environmental conditions underlying Bsal epizootics, present updated invasibility predictions for northwestern Europe, and lead us to discuss a wide variety of potential survey and research actions needed to advance future conservation and mitigation efforts.
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