Presently, consensus on the incorporation of induced earthquakes into seismic hazard has yet to be established. For example, the nonstationary, spatiotemporal nature of induced earthquakes is not well understood. Specific to the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, geological bias in seismogenic activation potential has been suggested to control the spatial distribution of induced earthquakes regionally. In this paper, we train a machine learning algorithm to systemically evaluate tectonic, geomechanical, and hydrological proxies suspected to control induced seismicity. Feature importance suggests that proximity to basement, in situ stress, proximity to fossil reef margins, lithium concentration, and rate of natural seismicity are among the strongest model predictors. Our derived seismogenic potential map faithfully reproduces the current distribution of induced seismicity and is suggestive of other regions which may be prone to induced earthquakes. The refinement of induced seismicity geological susceptibility may become an important technique to identify significant underlying geological features and address induced seismic hazard forecasting issues.
The thicknesses of stratigraphic sections of the Late Triassic (Carnian) Ischigualasto Formation change significantly, from ~300 to 700 m, along a 15 km transect in the Ischigualasto Provincial Park, San Juan, NW Argentina. Channel sandstone deposits dominate the thickest section, whereas pedogenically altered layers dominate the thinnest stratigraphic section. Eight paleosol types have been recognized in the study area, and they are unevenly distributed across the basin. In particular, paleosol B horizons are thinner and redoximorphic soil morphologies dominate in the thickest, whereas B horizons are thickest and argillic and calcic morphologies dominate in the thinnest stratigraphic section. These observations suggest that the geomorphic evolution of the Ischigualasto basin exerted the primary control on sediment distribution, depositional rate, soil drainage, and depth of the groundwater table through most of Late Triassic time in the Ischigualasto basin. In addition, δ 18 O values of paleosol calcite nodules are similar to modern soil calcites that form in frigid to cool climates between ~0 °C and 10 °C. Considering both lateral and stratigraphic distribution of paleosol morphological variability, there appears to be three different general modes of climate recorded throughout deposition of the Ischigualasto Formation: (1) Humid conditions recorded by Argillisols, Gleysols, and Vertisols in the lower quarter of the formation; (2) relatively dry conditions recorded by Calcisols, calcic Argillisols, and calcic Vertisols in the middle half of the formation; and (3) generally more humid conditions in the upper quarter of the formation recorded by Argillisols, Gleysols, and Vertisols.
Recently, a significant increase in North American, midcontinent earthquakes has been associated with contemporaneous development of petroleum resources. Despite the proliferation of drilling throughout sedimentary basins worldwide, earthquakes are only induced at a small fraction of wells. In this study, we focus on cases of induced seismicity where high‐resolution data are available in the central Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. Our regional comparison of induced earthquake depths suggests basement‐controlled tectonics. Complementary to these findings, hypocenters of induced seismicity clusters coincide with the margins of Devonian carbonate reefs. We interpret this spatial correspondence as the result of geographically biased activation potential, possibly as a consequence of reef nucleation preference to paleobathymetric highs associated with Precambrian basement tectonics. This finding demonstrates the importance of geologic/tectonic factors to earthquake induction, in addition to industrial operational parameters. In fact, the observation of induced seismicity silhouetting deep fossil reef systems may be a useful tool to identify future regions with increased seismogenic potential.
Summary Fault shear slip potential is analyzed in the area where induced earthquakes (up to 3.9 Mw) occurred in May-June 2015 approximately 30 km south of Fox Creek, Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, Canada. The induced earthquakes were generated by the hydraulic fracturing of the Upper Devonian Duvernay Formation. Interpretation of a 3D seismic survey and analysis of the ant tracking attribute identifies a linear discontinuity that likely represents a subvertical fault with strike length of 1.4 km, which is aligned with the zone of induced earthquake hypocenters. 1D-3D geomechanical modeling is conducted to characterize mechanical rock properties, initial reservoir pressure and stress field. Hydraulic fracture propagation and reservoir pressure buildup simulations are run to analyze lateral fluid pressure diffusion during well treatment. The interaction of natural fractures introduced as Discrete Fracture Network and hydraulic fractures is tested. 3D poroelastic reservoir geomechanical modeling is completed to simulate slip reactivation of the identified fault zone. The obtained results support that additional pressure buildup of 20 MPa in treatment wells can propagate laterally along hydraulic fractures (and potentially natural fracture network) for about 550 m and reach the fault zone. The increase of fluid pressure by 20 MPa in the fault zone results in dextral slip along the fault, mostly in the interval of the Duvernay and overlying Ireton Formations, corroborating prior focal mechanism results and hypocentral depths. The simulations indicate that lateral transmission of additional fluid pressure from the fracturing stimulation area to the fault zone could happen in a few days after the treatment of lateral wells that is supported by the observed induced earthquakes. This study helps to quantify changes in fluid pressure and stresses that may result in fault shear slip during hydraulic fracturing and predict the potential of induced seismicity connected to hydrocarbon production from the Duvernay Play.
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