Salt marshes in the Wadden Sea constitute about 20% of all salt marshes along European coasts. They are of immense importance for coastal protection reasons and as habitat for coastal plant, bird, and invertebrate species. The Wadden Sea is a coastal sedimentary ecosystem in the southeastern North Sea. Besides salt marshes, it is composed of tidal flats, high sands, and sandy shoals, dissected by (sub)tidal channels and located behind barrier islands. Accelerated global sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in storm climate have been identified as possible threats for the persistence of the Wadden Sea ecosystem including its salt marshes. Moreover, it is known that the amount and composition of the sediment available for salt marshes are the most important parameters influencing their ability to adapt to current and future SLR. Assessing these parameters requires a thorough understanding of the sedimentary system of the salt marshes and the adjacent tidal basins. In the present review, we investigate and unravel the interactions of sedimentary processes in the Wadden Sea with the processes taking place on the salt marshes. We identify the most crucial processes and interactions influencing the morphological development of salt marshes in the Wadden Sea. A conceptual model is proposed, intended as a framework for improved understanding of salt marsh development and for incorporation into new salt marsh models. The proposed model may also be applicable to regions other than the Wadden Sea.

The Wadden Sea is a shallow intertidal coastal sea, largely protected by barrier islands and fringing the North Sea coasts of Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark. It is subject to influences from both the North Sea and major European rivers. Nutrient enrichment from these rivers since the 1950s has impacted the Wadden Sea ecology including loss of seagrass, increased phytoplankton blooms, and increased green macroalgae blooms. Rivers are the major source of nutrients causing Wadden Sea eutrophication. The nutrient input of the major rivers impacting the Wadden Sea reached a maximum during the 1980s and decreased at an average pace of about 2.5% per year for total Nitrogen (TN) and about 5% per year for total Phosphorus (TP), leading to decreasing nutrient levels but also increasing N/P ratios. During the past decade, the lowest nutrient inputs since 1977 were observed but these declining trends are leveling out for TP. Phytoplankton biomass (measured as chlorophyll a) in the Wadden Sea has decreased since the 1980s and presently reached a comparatively low level. In tidal inlet stations with a long-term monitoring, summer phytoplankton levels correlate with riverine TN and TP loads but stations located closer to the coast behave in a more complex manner. Regional differences are observed, with highest chlorophyll a levels in the southern Wadden Sea and lowest levels in the northern Wadden Sea. Model data support the hypothesis that the higher eutrophication levels in the southern Wadden Sea are linked to a more intense coastward accumulation of organic matter produced in the North Sea.

Summary1. After the dramatic eutrophication-induced decline of intertidal seagrasses in the 1970s, the Wadden Sea has shown diverging developments. In the northern Wadden Sea, seagrass beds have expanded and become denser, while in the southern Wadden Sea, only small beds with low shoot densities are found. A lack of documentation of historical distributions hampers conservation management. Yet, the recovery in the northern Wadden Sea provides opportunity to construct robust habitat suitability models to support management. 2. We tuned habitat distribution models based on 17 years of seagrass surveys in the northern Wadden Sea and high-resolution hydrodynamics and geomorphology for the entire Wadden Sea using five machine learning approaches. To obtain geographically transferable models, hyperparameters were tuned on the basis of prediction accuracy assessed by non-random, spatial cross-validation. The spatial cross-validation methodology was combined with a consensus modelling approach. 3. The predicted suitability scores correlated amongst each other and with the hold-out observations in the training area indicating that the models converged and were transferable across space. Prediction accuracy was improved by averaging the predictions of the best models. 4. We graphically examined the relationship between the consensus suitability score and independent presence-only data from outside the training area using the area-adjusted seagrass frequency per suitability class (continuous Boyce index). The Boyce index was positively correlated with the suitability score indicating the adequacy of the prediction methodology. 5. We used the plot of the continuous Boyce index against habitat suitability score to demarcate three habitat classes -unsuitable, marginal and suitable -for the entire international Wadden Sea. This information is valuable for habitat conservation and restoration management. 6. Divergence between predicted suitability and actual distributions from the recent past indicates that unaccounted factors limit seagrass development in the southern Wadden Sea. 7. Synthesis and applications. Our methodology and data enabled us to produce a robust and validated consensus habitat suitability model. We identified highly suitable areas where intertidal seagrass meadows may establish and persist. Our work provides scientific underpinning for effective conservation planning in a dynamic landscape and sets monitoring priorities.

Published data were used to compare the distance decay of similarity in parasite communities of three marine fish hosts: Atlantic cod Gadus morhua, the dab Limanda limanda and the flounder Platichthys flesus in two adjacent areas that differ with respect to the strength of a salinity gradient. In the Baltic Sea, which exhibits a strong salinity gradient from its connection with the North Sea in the west to its head in the north-east, parasite communities in all three fish hosts showed a significant decline of similarity with increasing distance. In contrast, among host populations in the North Sea, which is a fully marine environment, there was no such decline or only a weak relationship. The results suggest that environmental gradients like salinity can be strong driving forces behind patterns of distance decay in parasite communities of fishes.

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