The 2012–2018 drought was such an extreme event in the drought-prone area of Northeast Brazil that it triggered a discussion about proactive drought management. This paper aims at understanding the causes and consequences of this event and analyzes its frequency. A consecutive sequence of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, at both the decadal and interannual scales, led to this severe and persistent drought. Drought duration and severity were analyzed using run theory at the hydrographic region scale as decision-makers understand impact analysis better at this scale. Copula functions were used to properly model drought joint characteristics as they presented different marginal distributions and an asymmetric behavior. The 2012–2018 drought in Ceará State had the highest mean bivariate return period ever recorded, estimated at 240 years. Considering drought duration and severity simultaneously at the level of the hydrographic regions improves risk assessment. This result advances our understanding of exceptional events. In this sense, the present work proposes the use of this analysis as a tool for proactive drought planning.
This study investigates the relationships between yield and evaporation as a function of lake morphology in semi-arid Brazil. First, a new methodology was proposed to classify the morphology of 40 reservoirs in the Ceará State, with storage capacities ranging from approximately 5 to 4500 hm 3 . Then, Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to study the effect of reservoir morphology (including real and simplified conical forms) on the water storage process at different reliability levels. The reservoirs were categorized as convex (60.0%), slightly convex (27.5%) or linear (12.5%). When the conical approximation was used instead of the real lake form, a trade-off occurred between reservoir yield and evaporation losses, with different trends for the convex, slightly convex and linear reservoirs. Using the conical approximation, the water yield prediction errors reached approximately 5% of the mean annual inflow, which is negligible for large reservoirs. However, for smaller reservoirs, this error became important. Therefore, this paper presents a new procedure for correcting the yield-evaporation relationships that were obtained by assuming a conical approximation rather than the real reservoir morphology. The combination of this correction with the Regulation Triangle Diagram is useful for rapidly and objectively predicting reservoir yield and evaporation losses in semi-arid environments.
O artigo apresenta a descrição de um conflito de águas no estado do Ceará, envolvendo as águas perenizadas pelos reservatórios Thomas Osterne e Manoel Balbino, no vale do rio Carás, na bacia do rio Salgado, ao sul do estado. Ao longo dos anos, em períodos de pluviosidade normal, foram construídas pequenas barragens para captação das águas liberadas nos leitos dos riachos. Em épocas de escassez, o conflito instala-se no vale, em decorrência da retenção de águas a montante, que impedem o fluxo natural para os usuários a jusante. O artigo apresenta ainda a descrição do conflito e sua análise no contexto do modelo institucional do Ceará. É analisada também a prática da alocação negociada como estratégia de resolução de conflitos. Como resultado, conseguiu-se, pacificamente, a remoção de barragens de terra que interferiam no escoamento do trecho perenizado.
This research aimed at evaluating groundwater vulnerability to agrochemical contamination. To that end, we developed an index called Hydric Vulnerability and Agrochemical Contamination Index (HVACI), which integrates a geographic information system and fuzzy logic to measure catchment vulnerability to agrochemical contamination. Our case study investigates two sub-basins, the Baixo Jaguaribe and the Médio Jaguaribe, in the state of Ceará, Brazil. We built a logical relationship matrix involving economic and environmental information as a tool to enhance public managers' decision-making capabilities. Evaluation was based on four categories of vulnerability — high, medium-high, medium-low, and low —, and we found that the joint area of the Baixo Jaguaribe and Médio Jaguaribe sub-basins presented the following levels of risk contamination: 80.3% of the area had low vulnerability, 3.5% had medium-low vulnerability, 3.0% had medium-high vulnerability, and 13.2% had high vulnerability. Geographically, the municipalities with high vulnerability to contamination by pesticides were Aracati, Icapuí, Limoeiro do Norte, Tabuleiro do Norte, and Quixeré. Therefore, HVACI is an important tool for directing environmental management efforts toward areas identified as highly vulnerable to agrochemical contamination.
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