The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent
Büntgen et al. (2015; hereinafter B15) present the result of new research which question the results of Wetter et al. 2014, ( hereinafter W14) and Wetter et al. (2013, hereinafter W13) regarding European climate in 1540. B15 conclude from tree-ring evidence that the results based on documentary data of W14 Bprobably overstated the intensity and duration of the 1540
Abstract. Narrative evidence contained within historical documents
and inscriptions provides an important record of climate variability for
periods prior to the onset of systematic meteorological data collection. A
common approach used by historical climatologists to convert such
qualitative information into continuous quantitative proxy data is through
the generation of ordinal-scale climate indices. There is, however,
considerable variability in the types of phenomena reconstructed using an
index approach and the practice of index development in different parts of
the world. This review, written by members of the PAGES (Past Global
Changes) CRIAS working group
– a collective of climate historians and historical climatologists
researching Climate Reconstructions and Impacts from the Archives of
Societies – provides the first global synthesis of the use of the index
approach in climate reconstruction. We begin by summarising the range of
studies that have used indices for climate reconstruction across six
continents (Europe, Asia, Africa, the Americas, and Australia) as well as the world's
oceans. We then outline the different methods by which indices are developed
in each of these regions, including a discussion of the processes adopted to
verify and calibrate index series, and the measures used to express
confidence and uncertainty. We conclude with a series of recommendations to
guide the development of future index-based climate reconstructions to
maximise their effectiveness for use by climate modellers and in multiproxy
climate reconstructions.
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