Background Surgery is the main modality of cure for solid cancers and was prioritised to continue during COVID-19 outbreaks. This study aimed to identify immediate areas for system strengthening by comparing the delivery of elective cancer surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic in periods of lockdown versus light restriction. Methods This international, prospective, cohort study enrolled 20 006 adult (≥18 years) patients from 466 hospitals in 61 countries with 15 cancer types, who had a decision for curative surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic and were followed up until the point of surgery or cessation of follow-up (Aug 31, 2020). Average national Oxford COVID-19 Stringency Index scores were calculated to define the government response to COVID-19 for each patient for the period they awaited surgery, and classified into light restrictions (index <20), moderate lockdowns (20–60), and full lockdowns (>60). The primary outcome was the non-operation rate (defined as the proportion of patients who did not undergo planned surgery). Cox proportional-hazards regression models were used to explore the associations between lockdowns and non-operation. Intervals from diagnosis to surgery were compared across COVID-19 government response index groups. This study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT04384926 . Findings Of eligible patients awaiting surgery, 2003 (10·0%) of 20 006 did not receive surgery after a median follow-up of 23 weeks (IQR 16–30), all of whom had a COVID-19-related reason given for non-operation. Light restrictions were associated with a 0·6% non-operation rate (26 of 4521), moderate lockdowns with a 5·5% rate (201 of 3646; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·81, 95% CI 0·77–0·84; p<0·0001), and full lockdowns with a 15·0% rate (1775 of 11 827; HR 0·51, 0·50–0·53; p<0·0001). In sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for SARS-CoV-2 case notification rates, moderate lockdowns (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·80–0·88; p<0·001), and full lockdowns (0·57, 0·54–0·60; p<0·001), remained independently associated with non-operation. Surgery beyond 12 weeks from diagnosis in patients without neoadjuvant therapy increased during lockdowns (374 [9·1%] of 4521 in light restrictions, 317 [10·4%] of 3646 in moderate lockdowns, 2001 [23·8%] of 11 827 in full lockdowns), although there were no differences in resectability rates observed with longer delays. Interpretation Cancer surgery systems worldwide were fragile to lockdowns, with one in seven patients who were in regions with full lockdowns not undergoing planned surgery and experiencing longer preoperative delays. Although short-term oncological outcomes were not compromised in those selected for surgery, delays and non-operations might lead to long-term reductions in survival. During current and future periods of societal restriction, the resilience of elective surgery systems requires strengthening, which might include...
Summary Background 80% of individuals with cancer will require a surgical procedure, yet little comparative data exist on early outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared postoperative outcomes in breast, colorectal, and gastric cancer surgery in hospitals worldwide, focusing on the effect of disease stage and complications on postoperative mortality. Methods This was a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients undergoing surgery for primary breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer requiring a skin incision done under general or neuraxial anaesthesia. The primary outcome was death or major complication within 30 days of surgery. Multilevel logistic regression determined relationships within three-level nested models of patients within hospitals and countries. Hospital-level infrastructure effects were explored with three-way mediation analyses. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT03471494 . Findings Between April 1, 2018, and Jan 31, 2019, we enrolled 15 958 patients from 428 hospitals in 82 countries (high income 9106 patients, 31 countries; upper-middle income 2721 patients, 23 countries; or lower-middle income 4131 patients, 28 countries). Patients in LMICs presented with more advanced disease compared with patients in high-income countries. 30-day mortality was higher for gastric cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (adjusted odds ratio 3·72, 95% CI 1·70–8·16) and for colorectal cancer in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (4·59, 2·39–8·80) and upper-middle-income countries (2·06, 1·11–3·83). No difference in 30-day mortality was seen in breast cancer. The proportion of patients who died after a major complication was greatest in low-income or lower-middle-income countries (6·15, 3·26–11·59) and upper-middle-income countries (3·89, 2·08–7·29). Postoperative death after complications was partly explained by patient factors (60%) and partly by hospital or country (40%). The absence of consistently available postoperative care facilities was associated with seven to 10 more deaths per 100 major complications in LMICs. Cancer stage alone explained little of the early variation in mortality or postoperative complications. Interpretation Higher levels of mortality after cancer surgery in LMICs was not fully explained by later presentation of disease. The capacity to rescue patients from surgical complications is a tangible opportunity for meaningful intervention. Early death after cancer surgery might be reduced by policies focusing on strengthening perioperative care systems to detect and intervene in common complications. Funding National Institute for Health Research Global Health Research Unit.
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer and the second leading cause of cancer‐related mortality worldwide. Non‐alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) encompasses a spectrum of liver pathology that is characterized by the excessive accumulation of fat in the liver attributable to overnutrition and is strongly associated with the metabolic syndrome. Non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis is the more severe form of NAFLD that is defined histologically by the presence of lobular inflammation and hepatocyte ballooning. Non‐alcoholic steatohepatitis patients have a greater tendency to develop advanced liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, and HCC. This review focuses on the epidemiology of NAFLD‐related HCC and its implications. NAFLD has been estimated to contribute to 10–12% of HCC cases in Western populations and 1–6% of HCC cases in Asian populations. NAFLD‐related HCC is expected to increase in Asian populations, in line with the increased prevalence of NALFD similar to that of Western populations in recent years. The increasing burden of NAFLD‐related HCC over time has been demonstrated in studies from both Western and Asian populations. Certain factors such as ethnicity, obesity, and diabetes mellitus appear to have an incremental effect on the risk of developing HCC among NAFLD patients. The difficulty in identifying NAFLD patients with cirrhosis and the possibility of HCC developing in noncirrhotic NAFLD patients are challenges that need to be addressed. Further understanding of these gaps may contribute to better surveillance strategies for the early detection of HCC in NAFLD patients to reduce the mortality and improve the survival of these patients.
Hepatic steatosis is increasingly common and has been implicated in progression of liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. We aimed to investigate the impact of hepatic steatosis on liver fibrosis and clinical outcomes in CHB patients. Consecutive CHB patients who underwent transient elastography between 2013 and 2017 at a tertiary hospital were included in this longitudinal cohort study. Presence of hepatic steatosis was defined as controlled attenuation parameter, CAP ≥ 248 dB/m, while advanced liver fibrosis was defined as liver stiffness measurement, LSM ≥ 9.4 kPa. Cardiovascular events, liver-related complications, malignancy and mortality and a composite of these outcomes were evaluated with Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression. Our study cohort included 614 patients with median follow-up of 45 (32-63) months. Hepatic steatosis was present in 294 patients (47.9%), and advanced liver fibrosis was present in 127 patients (21.0%).
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