Purpose: To use multimodal imaging for identification of risk factors for choroidal nevus transformation into melanoma. Methods: Retrospective chart review of 3806 consecutive choroidal nevi with imaging and 2355 choroidal nevi with additional follow up to identify factors predictive of transformation of choroidal nevus into melanoma. Results: The median patient age was 62.5 years and Caucasian race in 3167 (95%). The choroidal nevus demonstrated median basal diameter of 4.0 mm and thickness of 1.4 mm. Imaging included optical coherence tomography (OCT) showing subretinal fluid (SRF) in 312 (9%), ultrasonography (US) with acoustic hollowness in 309 (9%), and hyper-autofluorescence (AF) in 100 (3%). Of those 2355 choroidal nevi with follow up, Kaplan-Meier estimates of nevus transformation into melanoma at 1, 5, and 10 years were 1.2%, 5.8%, and 13.9%, respectively. Multivariate analysis, using multimodal imaging for detection of factors predictive of nevus transformation into melanoma, included thickness >2 mm on US (hazard ratio (HR) 3.80, p < 0.0001), SRF on OCT as cap over nevus (HR 3.00, p < 0.0001) or SRF ≤3 mm from nevus margin (HR 3.56, p = 0.0003), symptomatic vision loss ≤20/50 on Snellen visual acuity (VA) (HR 2.28, p = 0.005), orange pigment (lipofuscin) hyperautofluorescence on AF (HR 3.07, p = 0.0004), acoustic hollowness on US (HR 2.10, p = 0.0020), and tumor diameter >5 mm on photography (HR 1.84, p = 0.0275). These factors can be recalled by the mnemonic “To Find Small Ocular Melanoma Doing IMaging” (TFSOM-DIM) representing Thickness >2 mm (US), Fluid subretinal (OCT), Symptoms vision loss (VA), Orange pigment (AF), Melanoma hollow (US), and DIaMeter >5mm (photography). The mean 5-year estimates of nevus growth into melanoma were 1% (HR 0.8) for those with 0 risk factor, 11% (HR 3.09) with 1 factor, 22% (HR 10.6) with 2 factors, 34% (HR 15.1) with 3 factors, 51% (HR 15.2) with 4 factors, 55% (HR 26.4) with 5 risk factors, and not-estimable with all 6 risk factors. Conclusion: In this analysis, multimodal imaging was capable of detecting risk factors for nevus transformation into melanoma, including thickness >2 mm (US), fluid subretinal (OCT), symptoms vision loss (Snellen acuity), orange pigment (AF), melanoma hollowness (US), and diameter >5 mm (photography). Increasing number of risk factors imparts greater risk for nevus transformation into melanoma, including thickness >2 mm (US), fluid subretinal (OCT), symptoms vision loss (Snellen acuity), orange pigment (AF), melanoma hollowness (US), and diameter >5 mm (photography). Increasing number of risk factors imparts greater risk for transformation.
AimTo characterise combinations of multimodal imaging risk factors and predictive value for choroidal nevus transformation into melanoma.MethodsThis is a retrospective review of multimodal imaging features for 3806 choroidal nevi from 1 January 2007 through 1 January 2017. Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox regression analyses were used to calculate 5-year percentages of growth to melanoma and HR.ResultsUsing multimodal imaging, six risk factors predictive of choroidal nevus transformation into melanoma were identified, namely tumour thickness >2 mm, subretinal fluid, symptoms of visual acuity loss to 20/50 or worse, orange pigment, hollow acoustic density and tumour largest basal diameter >5 mm. Kaplan-Meier 5-year estimated tumour growth was found in 1% of nevi with no risk factors, 11% (range 9%–37%) with one factor, 22% (12%–68%) with two factors, 34% (21%–100%) with three factors, 51% (0%–100%) with four factors and 55% (0%–100%) with five factors. HR for growth was 0.1 with no factor, 2.1–7.8 with one factor, 1.8–12.1 with two factors, 4.0–24.4 with three factors, 4.6–170.0 with four factors and 12.0–595.0 with five factors. The highest HR with each combination of two, three, four or five risk factors always included symptoms of visual acuity loss and orange pigment.ConclusionSix risk factors for choroidal nevus transformation into melanoma by multimodal imaging have been identified. Risk for transformation into melanoma is 1% when no factors are present, and approaches 100% with specific combinations of three or more risk factors. Understanding how combinations of factors influence risk of transformation into melanoma can guide counselling and treatment decisions.
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