Gold-standard diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) relies on histopathological staging systems. Using the topographical information from [18F]MK6240 tau positron-emission tomography (PET), we applied the Braak tau staging system to 324 living individuals. We used PET-based Braak stage to model the trajectories of amyloid-β, phosphorylated tau (pTau) in cerebrospinal fluid (pTau181, pTau217, pTau231 and pTau235) and plasma (pTau181 and pTau231), neurodegeneration and cognitive symptoms. We identified nonlinear AD biomarker trajectories corresponding to the spatial extent of tau-PET, with modest biomarker changes detectable by Braak stage II and significant changes occurring at stages III–IV, followed by plateaus. Early Braak stages were associated with isolated memory impairment, whereas Braak stages V–VI were incompatible with normal cognition. In 159 individuals with follow-up tau-PET, progression beyond stage III took place uniquely in the presence of amyloid-β positivity. Our findings support PET-based Braak staging as a framework to model the natural history of AD and monitor AD severity in living humans.

An unresolved question for the understanding of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) pathophysiology is why a significant percentage of amyloid-β (Aβ)-positive cognitively unimpaired (CU) individuals do not develop detectable downstream tau pathology and, consequently, clinical deterioration. In vitro evidence suggests that reactive astrocytes unleash Aβ effects in pathological tau phosphorylation. Here, in a biomarker study across three cohorts (n = 1,016), we tested whether astrocyte reactivity modulates the association of Aβ with tau phosphorylation in CU individuals. We found that Aβ was associated with increased plasma phosphorylated tau only in individuals positive for astrocyte reactivity (Ast+). Cross-sectional and longitudinal tau–positron emission tomography analyses revealed an AD-like pattern of tau tangle accumulation as a function of Aβ only in CU Ast+ individuals. Our findings suggest astrocyte reactivity as an important upstream event linking Aβ with initial tau pathology, which may have implications for the biological definition of preclinical AD and for selecting CU individuals for clinical trials.