Acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is treated with systemic corticosteroid immunosuppression. Clinical response after 1 week of therapy often guides further treatment decisions, but long-term outcomes vary widely among centers, and more accurate predictive tests are urgently needed. We analyzed clinical data and blood samples taken 1 week after systemic treatment of GVHD from 507 patients from 17 centers of the Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC), dividing them into a test cohort (n = 236) and 2 validation cohorts separated in time (n = 142 and n = 129). Initial response to systemic steroids correlated with response at 4 weeks, 1-year nonrelapse mortality (NRM), and overall survival (OS). A previously validated algorithm of 2 MAGIC biomarkers (ST2 and REG3α) consistently separated steroid-resistant patients into 2 groups with dramatically different NRM and OS ( < .001 for all 3 cohorts). High biomarker probability, resistance to steroids, and GVHD severity (Minnesota risk) were all significant predictors of NRM in multivariate analysis. A direct comparison of receiver operating characteristic curves showed that the area under the curve for biomarker probability (0.82) was significantly greater than that for steroid response (0.68, = .004) and for Minnesota risk (0.72, = .005). In conclusion, MAGIC biomarker probabilities generated after 1 week of systemic treatment of GVHD predict long-term outcomes in steroid-resistant GVHD better than clinical criteria and should prove useful in developing better treatment strategies.

Key Points The MAGIC algorithm probability, computed from 2 serum biomarkers, predicts mortality in all GVHD grades after 4 weeks of treatment. Dynamic changes in the MAGIC algorithm probability occur within all biomarker risk groups and can guide therapy.

Steroid-refractory (SR) acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) remains a major cause of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT), but its occurrence is not accurately predicted by pre-HCT clinical risk factors. The Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) algorithm probability (MAP) identifies patients who are at high risk for developing SR GVHD as early as 7 days after HCT based on the extent of intestinal crypt damage as measured by the concentrations of 2 serum biomarkers, suppressor of tumorigenesis 2 and regenerating islet-derived 3α. We conducted a multicenter proof-of-concept “preemptive” treatment trial of α-1-antitrypsin (AAT), a serine protease inhibitor with demonstrated activity against GVHD, in patients at high risk for developing SR GVHD. Patients were eligible if they possessed a high-risk MAP on day 7 after HCT or, if initially low risk, became high risk on repeat testing at day 14. Thirty high-risk patients were treated with twice-weekly infusions of AAT for a total of 16 doses, and their outcomes were compared with 90 high-risk near-contemporaneous MAGIC control patients. AAT treatment was well tolerated with few toxicities, but it did not lower the incidence of SR GVHD compared with controls (20% vs 14%, P = .56). We conclude that real-time biomarker-based risk assignment is feasible early after allogeneic HCT but that this dose and schedule of AAT did not change the incidence of SR acute GVHD. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT03459040.

The graft-versus-leukemia (GVL) effect after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant (HCT) can prevent relapse but the risk of severe graft-vs-host disease (GVHD) leads to prolonged intensive immunosuppression and possible blunting of the GVL effect. Strategies to reduce immunosuppression in order to prevent relapse have been offset by increases in severe GVHD and non-relapse mortality (NRM). We recently validated the MAGIC algorithm probability (MAP) that predicts the risk for severe GVHD and NRM in asymptomatic patients using serum biomarkers. In this study we tested whether the MAP could identify patients whose risk for relapse is higher than their risk for severe GVHD and NRM. The multicenter study population (n=1604) was divided into two cohorts: historical (2006–2015, n=702) and current (2015–2017, n=902) with similar non-relapse mortality, relapse, and survival. On day 28 post-HCT, patients who had not developed GVHD (75% of the population) and who possessed a low MAP were at much higher risk for relapse (24%) than severe GVHD and NRM (16% and 9%); this difference was even more pronounced in patients with a high disease risk index (relapse 33%, NRM 9%). Such patients are good candidates to test relapse prevention strategies that might enhance GVL.

We used a rigorous PRoBE (prospective-specimen collection, retrospective-blinded-evaluation) study design to compare the ability of biomarkers of systemic inflammation and biomarkers of gastrointestinal (GI) tissue damage to predict response to corticosteroid treatment, the incidence of clinically severe disease, 6-month nonrelapse mortality (NRM), and overall survival in patients with acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). We prospectively collected serum samples of newly diagnosed GVHD patients (n = 730) from 19 centers, divided them into training (n = 352) and validation (n = 378) cohorts, and measured TNFR1, TIM3, IL6, ST2, and REG3α via enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Performances of the 4 strongest algorithms from the training cohort (TNFR1 + TIM3, TNFR1 + ST2, TNFR1 + REG3α, and ST2 + REG3α) were evaluated in the validation cohort. The algorithm that included only biomarkers of systemic inflammation (TNFR1 + TIM3) had a significantly smaller area under the curve (AUC; 0.57) than the AUCs of algorithms that contained ≥1 GI damage biomarker (TNFR1 + ST2, 0.70; TNFR1 + REG3α, 0.73; ST2 + REG3α, 0.79; all P &lt; .001). All 4 algorithms were able to predict short-term outcomes such as response to systemic corticosteroids and severe GVHD, but the inclusion of a GI damage biomarker was needed to predict long-term outcomes such as 6-month NRM and survival. The algorithm that included 2 GI damage biomarkers was the most accurate of the 4 algorithms for all endpoints.

The standard primary treatment for acute graft vs host disease (GVHD) requires prolonged, high dose systemic corticosteroids (SCS) that delay reconstitution of the immune system. We used validated clinical and biomarker staging criteria to identify a group of patients with low risk (LR) GVHD that is very likely to respond to SCS. We hypothesized that itacitinib, a selective JAK1 inhibitor, would effectively treat LR GVHD without SCS. We treated 70 patients with LR GVHD in a multicenter, phase 2 trial (NCT03846479) with 28 days of itacitinib 200 mg/day (responders could receive a second 28-day cycle) and compared their outcomes to 140 contemporaneous, matched control patients treated with SCS. More patients responded to itacitinib within 7 days (81% vs 66%, p=0.02) and response rates at day 28 were very high for both groups (89% vs 86%, p=0.67) with few symptomatic flares (11% vs 12%, p=0.88). Fewer itacitinib treated patients developed a serious infection within 90 days (27% vs 42%, p=0.04) due to fewer viral and fungal infections. Grade ≥3 cytopenias were similar between groups except for less severe leukopenia with itacitinib (16% vs 31%, p=0.02). No other grade ≥3 adverse events occurred in &gt;10% of itacitinib treated patients. There were no significant differences between groups at 1-year for non-relapse mortality (4% vs 11%, p=0.21), relapse (18% vs 21%, p=0.64), chronic GVHD (28% vs 33%, p=0.33) or survival (88% vs 80%, p=0.11). Itacitinib monotherapy seems to be a safe and effective alternative to SCS treatment for LR GVHD that deserves further investigation.

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Late acute GVHD is defined as de novo acute GVHD presenting beyond 100 days after allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) without manifestations of chronic GVHD. Data are limited regarding its characteristics, clinical course, and risk factors due to under recognition and changes in classification. We evaluated 3542 consecutive adult recipients of their first HCT at twenty-four Mount Sinai Acute GVHD International Consortium (MAGIC) centers between January 2014 and August 2021 to better describe the clinical evolution and outcomes of late acute GVHD. The cumulative incidence of classic acute GVHD that required systemic treatment was 35.2% and an additional 5.7% of patients required treatment for late acute GVHD. At the onset of symptoms, late acute GVHD was more severe than classic acute GVHD by both clinical and MAGIC Algorithm Probability (MAP) biomarker parameters, and showed a lower overall response rate at day 28. Both clinical and biomarker grading at the time of treatment stratified the risk of NRM in patients with classic and late acute GVHD, respectively, but long-term NRM and OS did not differ between patients with classic and late acute GVHD. Advanced age, female to male sex mismatch, and the use of reduced intensity conditioning were associated with development of late acute GVHD, whereas use of post-transplant cyclophosphamide-based GVHD prevention was protective mainly due to shifts in GVHD timing. As overall outcomes were comparable, our findings, while not definitive, suggest that similar treatment strategies, including eligibility for clinical trials, based solely on clinical presentation at onset are appropriate.