Background High utilizers (HUs) are a small group of patients who impose a disproportionately high burden on the healthcare system due to their elevated resource use. Identification of persistent HUs is pertinent as interventions have not been effective due to regression to the mean in majority of patients. This study will use cost and utilization metrics to segment a hospital-based patient population into HU groups. Methods The index visit for each adult patient to an Academic Medical Centre in Singapore during 2006 to 2012 was identified. Cost, length of stay (LOS) and number of specialist outpatient clinic (SOC) visits within 1 year following the index visit were extracted and aggregated. Patients were HUs if they exceeded the 90th percentile of any metric, and Non-HU otherwise. Seven different HU groups and a Non-HU group were constructed. The groups were described in terms of cost and utilization patterns, socio-demographic information, multi-morbidity scores and medical history. Logistic regression compared the groups’ persistence as a HU in any group into the subsequent year, adjusting for socio-demographic information and diagnosis history. Results A total of 388,162 patients above the age of 21 were included in the study. Cost-LOS-SOC HUs had the highest multi-morbidity and persistence into the second year. Common conditions among Cost-LOS and Cost-LOS-SOC HUs were cardiovascular disease, acute cerebrovascular disease and pneumonia, while most LOS and LOS-SOC HUs were diagnosed with at least one mental health condition. Regression analyses revealed that HUs across all groups were more likely to persist compared to Non-HUs, with stronger relationships seen in groups with high SOC utilization. Similar trends remained after further adjustment. Conclusion HUs of healthcare services are a diverse group and can be further segmented into different subgroups based on cost and utilization patterns. Segmentation by these metrics revealed differences in socio-demographic characteristics, disease profile and persistence. Most HUs did not persist in their high utilization, and high SOC users should be prioritized for further longitudinal analyses. Segmentation will enable policy makers to better identify the diverse needs of patients, detect gaps in current care and focus their efforts in delivering care relevant and tailored to each segment. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-019-4239-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
ObjectiveWe aim to characterise persistent high utilisers (PHUs) of healthcare services, and correspondingly, transient high utilisers (THUs) and non-high utilisers (non-HUs) for comparison, to facilitate stratifying HUs for targeted intervention. Subsequently we apply machine learning algorithms to predict which HUs will persist as PHUs, to inform future trials testing the effectiveness of interventions in reducing healthcare utilisation in PHUs.Design and settingThis is a retrospective cohort study using administrative data from an Academic Medical Centre (AMC) in Singapore.ParticipantsPatients who had at least one inpatient admission to the AMC between 2005 and 2013 were included in this study. HUs incurred Singapore Dollar 8150 or more within a year. PHUs were defined as HUs for three consecutive years, while THUs were HUs for 1 or 2 years. Non-HUs did not incur high healthcare costs at any point during the study period.Outcome measuresPHU status at the end of the third year was the outcome of interest. Socio-demographic profiles, clinical complexity and utilisation metrics of each group were reported. Area under curve (AUC) was used to identify the best model to predict persistence.ResultsPHUs were older and had higher comorbidity and mortality. Over the three observed years, PHUs’ expenditure generally increased, while THUs and non-HUs’ spending and inpatient utilisation decreased. The predictive model exhibited good performance during both internal (AUC: 83.2%, 95% CI: 82.2% to 84.2%) and external validation (AUC: 79.8%, 95% CI: 78.8% to 80.8%).ConclusionsThe HU population could be stratified into PHUs and THUs, with distinctly different utilisation trajectories. We developed a model that could predict at the end of 1 year, whether a patient in our population will continue to be a HU in the next 2 years. This knowledge would allow healthcare providers to target PHUs in our health system with interventions in a cost-effective manner.
BackgroundElectronic medical records (EMRs) contain a wealth of information that can support data-driven decision making in health care policy design and service planning. Although research using EMRs has become increasingly prevalent, challenges such as coding inconsistency, data validity, and lack of suitable measures in important domains still hinder the progress.ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to design a structured way to process records in administrative EMR systems for health services research and assess validity in selected areas.MethodsOn the basis of a local hospital EMR system in Singapore, we developed a structured framework for EMR data processing, including standardization and phenotyping of diagnosis codes, construction of cohort with multilevel views, and generation of variables and proxy measures to supplement primary data. Disease complexity was estimated by Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and Polypharmacy Score (PPS), whereas socioeconomic status (SES) was estimated by housing type. Validity of modified diagnosis codes and derived measures were investigated.ResultsVisit-level (N=7,778,761) and patient-level records (n=549,109) were generated. The International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Australian Modification (ICD-10-AM) codes were standardized to the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM) with a mapping rate of 87.1%. In all, 97.4% of the ICD-9-CM codes were phenotyped successfully using Clinical Classification Software by Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. Diagnosis codes that underwent modification (truncation or zero addition) in standardization and phenotyping procedures had the modification validated by physicians, with validity rates of more than 90%. Disease complexity measures (CCI and PPS) and SES were found to be valid and robust after a correlation analysis and a multivariate regression analysis. CCI and PPS were correlated with each other and positively correlated with health care utilization measures. Larger housing type was associated with lower government subsidies received, suggesting association with higher SES. Profile of constructed cohorts showed differences in disease prevalence, disease complexity, and health care utilization in those aged above 65 years and those aged 65 years or younger.ConclusionsThe framework proposed in this study would be useful for other researchers working with EMR data for health services research. Further analyses would be needed to better understand differences observed in the cohorts.
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