Purpose To transcend the long-standing debate regarding whether workers are driven into the informal economy by either their involuntary “exclusion” or voluntary “exit” from the formal economy, the purpose of this paper is to propose and evaluate the existence of a dual informal labour market composed of an exit-driven “upper tier” and an exclusion-driven “lower-tier” of informal workers, and to explore its policy implications. Design/methodology/approach To do so, data are reported from a 2015 survey of the informal economy conducted in South-East Europe involving 6,019 face-to-face interviews in Bulgaria, Croatia and FYR Macedonia. Findings Identifying a dual informal labour market with three exit-driven informal workers for every exclusion-driven informal worker, a multinomial logit regression analysis reveals that, compared to the exclusion-driven “lower tier”, the exit-driven “upper tier” is significantly more likely to be populated by the formally employed, retired and those not struggling financially. Participation is not affected by the perceived severity of penalties and likely risks of detection, but relative to those in the exclusion-driven “lower tier”, there is a significant correlation between those doing so for exit rationales and their lack of both horizontal trust and vertical trust in formal institutions. Practical implications The outcome is a call to transcend the conventional deterrence approach of increasing the penalties and risks of detection. Instead, to tackle those driven by exit rationales, tackling both the lack of horizontal trust that other citizens are operating in a compliant manner and the lack of vertical trust in formal institutions is advocated. To tackle exclusion-driven informal workers, meanwhile, a focus upon the macro-level economic and social conditions which lead to their participation is required. Originality/value This is the first paper to empirically evaluate the existence of a dual informal labour market and to evaluate its policy implications.
In recent years, a new institutionalist theory has emerged to explain the prevalence of informal sector entrepreneurship. This argues that formal institutional failures lead to the emergence of an asymmetry between the formal rules (laws and regulations) and the norms, values and beliefs of entrepreneurs regarding the acceptability of participating in the informal sector, which in turn leads to the prevalence of informal entrepreneurship. The aim of this paper is to evaluate this social actor approach by reporting evidence from 453 face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of entrepreneurs in FYR Macedonia. This reveals not only a significant association between participation in the informal economy and the non-alignment of entrepreneurs’ views with the formal rules, but specific formal institutional failings that are significantly associated with the acceptability of informal entrepreneurship, namely poor quality public services, a lack of tax fairness, corruption and instability in the formal institutions. The theoretical and policy implications are then discussed.
A widespread assumption is that competition from the informal sector has a negative impact on the firm performance of legitimate enterprises. This is because of the unfair competition they face from such enterprises in the informal sector. The aim of this paper is to provide an evidence-based evaluation of whether this is the case based on an analysis of the relationship between the firm performance of enterprises and their perception of the prevalence of informal sector competition. To do so, data is reported from a representative sample of 1,430 enterprises in Bulgaria, Croatia and FYR Macedonia. The finding is that enterprises asserting that their competitors participate in the informal economy have significantly lower real annual sales growth rates compared with those who assert that their competitors do not participate in the informal economy. The theoretical and policy implications are then discussed.
Background: A lower tax morality leads to an increased readiness to become active in the unofficial economy and causes the lack of public revenues.Objectives: The aim of this paper is to investigate determinants that shape tax morale of Croatian citizens.Methods/Approach: An ordered logit model is employed to evaluate which determinants shape tax morale of Croatian citizens. Data for the research were collected from 2,000 face-to-face interviews conducted in Croatia in late 2015.Results: The descriptive analysis illustrates that 52 percent of respondents reported a high level of tax morale, 26 percent of respondents have a low tax morale, while 8 and 14 percent have a mid-low and a mid-high tax morale, respectively. The ordered logit analysis revealed that gender, age, financial situation, region, and participation in the unofficial economy have an impact on the tax morale.Conclusions: Besides socio-demographic, socio-economic, and spatial determinants, a great number of sanctions for participation in informal activities also shapes tax morale of the Croatian citizens. More precisely, marginal effects show that those perceiving the expected sanctions as “normal tax or social security contributions due, plus a fine or a prison sentence” have by 6.3 percentage points higher probability of reporting the highest tax morale than others.
When explaining and tackling employers participating in the informal economy, they have been conventionally viewed as rational economic actors who engage when the benefits outweigh the costs, and thus their participation is deterred by increasing the sanctions and/or risks of detection. An emergent social actor approach, however, has explained employers as engaging in the informal economy when there is a lack of vertical trust (i.e., their norms, values and beliefs are not in symmetry with the laws and regulations) and horizontal trust (i.e., they believe many others are being non-compliant). The aim of this paper is to evaluate these competing perspectives by reporting a 2015 survey of 450 employers in FYR Macedonia. The finding is that although there is no association between employers using unregistered workers and the perceived level of penalties and risks of detection, there is a strong significant association with both the level of vertical and horizontal trust. Those whose beliefs do not align with the laws and regulations display a significantly greater likelihood of employing unregistered workers, as do those who perceive a larger proportion of the population to be engaged in the informal economy. The theoretical and policy implications are then discussed.
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