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Foulds, S. A., Griffiths, H., Macklin, M., Brewer, P. (2014). Geomorphological records of extreme floods and their relationship to decadal-scale climate change. Geomorphology, 216, 193-207Extreme rainfall and flood events in steep upland catchments leave geomorphological traces of their occurrence in the form of boulder berms, debris cones, and alluvial fans. Constraining the age of these features is critical to understanding (i) landscape evolution in response to past, present, and future climate changes; and (ii) the magnitude?frequency of extreme, ungauged floods in small upland catchments. This research focuses on the Cambrian Mountains of Wales, UK, where lichenometric dating of geomorphological features and palaeohydrological reconstructions is combined with climatological data and documentary flood records. Our new data from Wales highlight a distinct flood-rich period between 1900 and 1960, similar to many other UK lichen-dated records. However, this study sheds new light on the underlying climatic controls on upland flooding in small catchments. Although floods can occur in any season, their timing is best explained by the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) and shifts between negative (wetter than average conditions with regular cyclonic flow and flooding) and positive phases (drier than average conditions with less frequent cyclonic flow and flooding), which vary from individual summers to decadal and multidecadal periods. Recent wet summer weather, flooding, and boulder-berm deposition in the UK (2007?2012) are related to a pronounced negative phase shift of the SNAO. There is also increasing evidence that recent summer weather extremes in the mid-latitudes may be related to Arctic amplification and rapid sea ice loss. If this is the case, continuing and future climate change is likely to mean that (i) unusual weather patterns become more frequent; and (ii) upland UK catchments will experience heightened flood risk and significant geomorphological changes.authorsversionPeer reviewe

River basins in Great Britain and Ireland have been characterized by periods of hillslope and valley floor instability during the Holocene, reflecting sensitivity to both climate change and anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast to climatic controls, which have been relatively well documented, human impacts on and interactions with river basins remain unclear. There is now, however, a growing impetus to elucidate more fully the impact of anthropogenic activity on sediment supply and runoff, given that land-use change is thought to have exacerbated recent flooding in the UK (eg, the ‘Millennium'floods of 2000). The aim of this paper is to critically review the significance of Holocene land use on hillslope and valley floor stability in Great Britain and Ireland. The most widely reported impacts of land-use change on geomorphic activity include hillslope erosion and gully development, valley floor alluviation, river channel incision and elevated water tables. In the majority of cases, however, causal relationships are difficult to establish, due primarily to inadequate dating control. Even where geomorphic instability can be linked to land-use change, it is apparent that eroded material is often stored as colluvium, which together with evidence of diachronus hillslope and valley floor instability, raises important questions and identifies uncertainties regarding the dynamics and extent of sediment transfer within river basins. Such uncertainty has important implications for understanding how river basins will behave in response to future environmental change.

Abstract:Extreme floods are the most widespread and often the most fatal type of natural hazard experienced in Europe, particularly in upland and mountainous areas. These 'flash flood' type events are particularly dangerous because extreme rainfall totals in a short space of time can lead to very high flow velocities and little or no time for flood warning. Given the danger posed by extreme floods, there are concerns that catastrophic hydrometeorological events could become more frequent in a warming world. However, analysis of longer term flood frequency is often limited by the use of short instrumental flow records (last 30-40 years) that do not adequately cover alternating flood-rich and flood-poor periods over the last 2 to 3 centuries. In contrast, this research extends the upland flood series of South West England (Dartmoor) back to ca AD 1800 using lichenometry. Results show that the period 1820 to mid-1940s was characterized by widespread flooding, with particularly large and frequent events in the mid-to-late 19th and early 20th centuries. Since ca 1850 to 1900, there has been a general decline in flood magnitude that was particularly marked after the 1930s/mid-1940s. Local meteorological records show that: (1) historical flood-rich periods on Dartmoor were associated with high annual, seasonal and daily rainfall totals in the last quarter of the 19th century and between 1910 and 1946, related to sub-decadal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and receipt of cyclonic and southerly weather types over the southwest peninsula; and (2) the incidence of heavy daily rainfall declined notably after 1946, similar to sedimentary archives of flooding. The peak period of flooding on Dartmoor predates the beginning of gauged flow records, which has practical implications for understanding and managing flood risk on rivers that drain Dartmoor.