The impact of clinical parameters, International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) scores/cytogenetic categories, and some single cytogenetic defects on overall survival (OS) and time to myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS)/AML progression (progression-free interval (PFI)) was evaluated in 331 MDS patients. Statistical analysis demonstrated that OS and PFI were significantly affected by all these parameters. Since single 7q-showed a better survival than the poor IPSS cytogenetic category (P ¼ 0.009), it was considered as a new prognostic entity ('modified IPSS categories'). In multivariate analysis OS was significantly influenced by age, marrow blast cell percentage, number of cytopenias and either modified or standard IPSS cytogenetic categories; hazard ratios for MDS/AML progression were influenced by all the former, except for age and cytopenias. Multivariate analysis of del (7)(q31q35) confirmed the results of univariate analysis, but the Akaike Information Criterion showed no difference in evaluating OS and PFI between the modified and standard IPSS cytogenetic grouping. In conclusion, (i) chromosome defects as grouped by IPSS and blast cell percentage are the most relevant parameters for predicting OS and PFI; (ii) the prognostic power of the IPSS cytogenetic grouping is not ameliorated by the introduction of del(7)(q31q35) as a new entity; (iii) complex karyotypes have a prognostic value independent of blast cell percentage.

Summary This study correlated chromosomal defects with French–American–British (FAB)/World Health Organization (WHO) classification subtypes, proposed a revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) cytogenetic grouping; and established which classification, when used with the IPSS cytogenetic categories, best predicted clinical outcome in the myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). A higher prevalence of chromosomal defects and distinct defects were observed in patients with multi‐lineage dysplasia and a blast cell percentage >10%. Abnormalities of the long arm of chromosome 3, del(7)(q31q35), trisomy 8, del(11)(q14q23), del(12p) and 20q‐ could be segregated from their respective IPSS cytogenetic categories and used to develop new cytogenetic subgroups. Clinical parameters, FAB/WHO classification, IPSS score and standard or revised cytogenetic categories were statistically relevant for overall survival (OS) and progression‐free intervals (PFI) and were included within five distinct multivariate models compared by the Akaike Information Criterion. To predict OS, the best models included age, WHO classification and standard or revised IPSS cytogenetic categories; to predict PFI, the best model included the same variables and revised cytogenetic categories. In conclusion, (i) the WHO classification was associated with a more homogeneous cytogenetic pattern than the FAB classification, (ii) WHO classification and standard/revised IPSS cytogenetic categories were much more effective than IPSS for predicting MDS clinical outcome, (iii) revised cytogenetic subgroups predicted PFI more effectively than standard categories.

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