Highlights Non-pharmaceutical interventions was effective in reducing COVID-19 transmission. Social distancing is more effective than the other NPIs in containing COVID-19. Two or more synchronous NPIs are more effective than a single type of NPIs.

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A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme was developed for transmission rate. • Scale of population migration from Wuhan was incorporated. • Population density had a non-linear (linearity index, 0.9) impact on disease spread. • Transmission rate shows a negative and exponential temperature dependence. • COVID-19 mitigation in densely populated and cold regions will be a great challenge.