Combined cargo transportation in Ukraine is characterized by the presence of uncertain risks. The aim of the article was to propose a mathematical model for choosing the mode of transportation that would correspond to the best value of the integral objective function in the presence of fuzzy, stochastic and uncertain risk parameters. The efficiency of the mathematical model provided the possibility of forming not only long-term forecasts that require significant time, but also short-term forecasts in real time. This allows to quickly change routes and conditions of transportation. Practical testing of the mathematical model revealed the assimilating nature of some uncertain risks. The results of the analysis are given in the article. The realization of such a risk leads to a radical change in all conditions of transportation. Long-term forecasts allow to predict new routes and conditions of transportation.
Research shows that the risks of multimodal transportation in the Northern ports of the Azov and Black seas, in real time, can vary by large quantities. This can cause significant problems for dynamic management of transportation, providing that transportation costs and time are minimized. Therefore, it is essential to formulate a mathematical model to determine the integral risk of freight traffic involved as it could help minimize the need for additional computer resources for the operation of logistics machinery. Determining the value of the integral risk is further complicated by the fact that the mathematical apparatus used for calculating stochastic and fuzzy risks tend to differ from one another. Therefore, an additional tool developed for the unification of various mathematical apparatus was done. The main task was conversion of local risks weight factors to components of integral risks, determined in actual time. The mathematical model has been tested for the dynamic management of freight traffic on the Black Sea ports - Mariupol, Odesa, Chornomorsk, Mikolaev, and Kherson. The route optimization was carried out for container and bulk cargoes, in particular, for grain cargoes. This allowed coverage for the whole range of risks that are inherent to multimodal transportation within the Azov-Black Sea region. The results confirmed that such an approach grants the possibility to choose routes with minimal transportation costs and time, as well as minimization of the use of computer resources.
This article considers the use of the entropy method in the optimization and forecasting of multimodal transport under conditions of risks that can be determined simultaneously by deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy quantities. This will allow to change the route of transportation in real time in an optimal way with an unacceptable increase in the risk at one of its next stages and predict the redistribution of the load of transport nodes. The aim of this study is to develop a mathematical model for the optimal choice of an alternative route, the best for one or more objective functions in real time. In addition, it is proposed to use this mathematical model to estimate the dynamic change in turnover through intermediate transport nodes, forecasting their loading over time under different conditions that also include long-term risks which are significant in magnitude. To substantiate the feasibility of the proposed mathematical model, the analysis and forecast of cargo turnover through the seaports of Ukraine are presented, taking into account and analysing the existing risks.
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