Given the tourism industry’s risk and vulnerability to pandemics and the need to better understand the impacts on tourism destinations, this research assesses the effect of the COVID-19 outbreak on the variation of taxpayer units in the Mexican Caribbean region, which includes some of the major sun-and-sand beach destinations in Latin America. Using monthly data of registered taxpayer entities at the state and national levels as the analysis variable, probability distributions and definite integrals are employed to determine variations of the year following the lockdown, compared with previous years’ data. Results indicate that despite the government’s measures to restrict businesses’ operations and a reduction in tourism activities, registered taxpayers at the regional level did not decrease for most of 2020. Further, as business activities and tourism recovered, taxpayer units increased at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021. Surprisingly, such a pattern was not observed at the national level, which yielded no statistically significant variations. A discussion of factors influencing the resilience of the tourism region in the study (e.g., outbound markets’ geographic proximity, absence of travel restrictions, closure of competing destinations) and implications for public finances are presented.
ResumenEl objetivo general es estimar escenarios para el volumen de operaciones que puedan presentarse en Sectores Vulnerables, susceptibles de recibir operaciones financieras ilícitas. El método empleado son las matrices estocásticas también denominadas de transición, en virtud de haber demostrado eficacia en la prevención de riesgo financiero, los resultados permitieron conocer el volumen de operaciones que podrían ser reportadas para un período de hasta 36 meses posterior a la información histórica a septiembre del 2014. Como parte de los análisis estocásticos, los resultados aportan elementos para que la inteligencia financiera pueda analizar con mayor profundidad a ciertos sectores hasta confirmar o no la procedencia ilícita. El método no había sido empleado hasta ahora para la estimación de operaciones con recursos de procedencia ilícita.Clasificación JEL: F38, G18, G28, M48. Palabras clave: Sectores vulnerables, Recursos de procedencia ilícita, Matrices de transición. Expectations for financial operations done through Transition Matrices in the Vulnerable Sectors AbstractThe general objective of this work is to estimate the scenarios for the volume of operations that could emerge in Vulnerable Sectors, susceptible to illicit financial operations. The methods used are the stochastic matrices, also known as transition matrices, as they have demonstrated to be efficient in the prevention of financial risk. The results allowed for the understanding of the volume of operations that could be reported for a period of up to 36 months after the historical data until September 2014. As part of the stochastic analyses, the results provide elements for the financial intelligence to further analyze certain sectors until confirming illicit precedence. The method had not been used for the estimation of operations with illegally obtained resources.JEL Classification: F38, G18, G28, M48.
Significance analysis to the Value-Added Tax increments for the border region of Quintana Roo from 2003 to 2015 Análisis de significancia de los incrementos al Impuesto al Valor Agregado en la región fronteriza de Quintana Roo de 2003 a 2015
En este artículo se analiza la exportación de México hacia la Unión Europea y China para conocer las probabilidades, en el caso de que las políticas comerciales de los EE.UU. obligaran a cambiar el rumbo de los productos mexicanos hacia esos mercados. El trabajo se inicia con una síntesis de las políticas económicas de México hasta llegar a los acuerdos en materia comercial suscritos, con énfasis en el Tratado de Libre Comercio con la Unión Europea (TLCUEM), también esbozando la dinámica comercial de bienes con China. Posteriormente se describe la exportación mexicana de bienes y sus principales destinos, para después analizar los valores de la exportación desde 2012 hasta 2015, verificando que los datos se ajusten a distribuciones gamma y normal, estimando probabilidades para distintos ensayos, que contemplan los promedios exportados, los máximos e inclusive importes aún mayores para conocer las posibilidades que tendría México para sustituir distintas cantidades que eventualmente no pudieran colocarse en el mercado estadounidense.
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