BackgroundEfforts are underway to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem by 2020. Programmatic guidelines are based on clinical signs that correlate poorly with Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection in post-treatment and low-endemicity settings. Age-specific seroprevalence of anti Ct Pgp3 antibodies has been proposed as an alternative indicator of the need for intervention. To standardise the use of these tools, it is necessary to develop an analytical approach that performs reproducibly both within and between studies.MethodologyDried blood spots were collected in 2014 from children aged 1–9 years in Laos (n = 952) and Uganda (n = 2700) and from people aged 1–90 years in The Gambia (n = 1868). Anti-Pgp3 antibodies were detected by ELISA. A number of visual and statistical analytical approaches for defining serological status were compared.Principal FindingsSeroprevalence was estimated at 11.3% (Laos), 13.4% (Uganda) and 29.3% (The Gambia) by visual inspection of the inflection point. The expectation-maximisation algorithm estimated seroprevalence at 10.4% (Laos), 24.3% (Uganda) and 29.3% (The Gambia). Finite mixture model estimates were 15.6% (Laos), 17.1% (Uganda) and 26.2% (The Gambia). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis using a threshold calibrated against external reference specimens estimated the seroprevalence at 6.7% (Laos), 6.8% (Uganda) and 20.9% (The Gambia) when the threshold was set to optimise Youden’s J index. The ROC curve analysis was found to estimate seroprevalence at lower levels than estimates based on thresholds established using internal reference data. Thresholds defined using internal reference threshold methods did not vary substantially between population samples.ConclusionsInternally calibrated approaches to threshold specification are reproducible and consistent and thus have advantages over methods that require external calibrators. We propose that future serological analyses in trachoma use a finite mixture model or expectation-maximisation algorithm as a means of setting the threshold for ELISA data. This will facilitate standardisation and harmonisation between studies and eliminate the need to establish and maintain a global calibration standard.
Robust surveillance methods are needed for trachoma control and recrudescence monitoring, but existing methods have limitations. Here, we analyse data from nine trachoma-endemic populations and provide operational thresholds for interpretation of serological data in low-transmission and post-elimination settings. Analyses with sero-catalytic and antibody acquisition models provide insights into transmission history within each population. To accurately estimate sero-conversion rates (SCR) for trachoma in populations with high-seroprevalence in adults, the model accounts for secondary exposure to Chlamydia trachomatis due to urogenital infection. We estimate the population half-life of sero-reversion for anti-Pgp3 antibodies to be 26 (95% credible interval (CrI): 21–34) years. We show SCRs below 0.015 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0–0.049) per year correspond to a prevalence of trachomatous inflammation—follicular below 5%, the current threshold for elimination of active trachoma as a public health problem. As global trachoma prevalence declines, we may need cross-sectional serological survey data to inform programmatic decisions.
BackgroundValidation of elimination of trachoma as a public health problem is based on clinical indicators, using the WHO simplified grading system. Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infection and anti-Ct antibody responses (anti-Pgp3) have both been evaluated as alternative indicators in settings with varying levels of trachoma. There is a need to evaluate the feasibility of using tests for Ct infection and anti-Pgp3 antibodies at scale in a trachoma-endemic country and to establish the added value of the data generated for understanding transmission dynamics in the peri-elimination setting.Methodology/Principal findingsDried blood spots for serological testing and ocular swabs for Ct infection testing (taken from children aged 1–9 years) were integrated into the pre-validation trachoma surveys conducted in the Northern and Upper West regions of Ghana in 2015 and 2016. Ct infection was detected using the GeneXpert PCR platform and the presence of anti-Pgp3 antibodies was detected using both the ELISA assay and multiplex bead array (MBA). The overall mean cluster-summarised TF prevalence (the clinical indicator) was 0.8% (95% CI: 0.6–1.0) and Ct infection prevalence was 0.04% (95%CI: 0.00–0.12). Anti-Pgp3 seroprevalence using the ELISA was 5.5% (95% CI: 4.8–6.3) compared to 4.3% (95%CI: 3.7–4.9) using the MBA. There was strong evidence from both assays that seropositivity increased with age (p<0.001), although the seroconversion rate was estimated to be very low (between 1.2 to 1.3 yearly events per 100 children).Conclusions/SignificanceInfection and serological data provide useful information to aid in understanding Ct transmission dynamics. Elimination of trachoma as a public health problem does not equate to the absence of ocular Ct infection nor cessation in acquisition of anti-Ct antibodies.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.