The General Population Cohort (GPC) was set up in 1989 to examine trends in HIV prevalence and incidence, and their determinants in rural south-western Uganda. Recently, the research questions have included the epidemiology and genetics of communicable and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) to address the limited data on the burden and risk factors for NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa. The cohort comprises all residents (52% aged ≥13years, men and women in equal proportions) within one-half of a rural sub-county, residing in scattered houses, and largely farmers of three major ethnic groups. Data collected through annual surveys include; mapping for spatial analysis and participant location; census for individual socio-demographic and household socioeconomic status assessment; and a medical survey for health, lifestyle and biophysical and blood measurements to ascertain disease outcomes and risk factors for selected participants. This cohort offers a rich platform to investigate the interplay between communicable diseases and NCDs. There is robust infrastructure for data management, sample processing and storage, and diverse expertise in epidemiology, social and basic sciences. For any data access enquiries you may contact the director, MRC/UVRI, Uganda Research Unit on AIDS by email to mrc@mrcuganda.org or the corresponding author.

BackgroundHIV surveillance of generalised epidemics in Africa primarily relies on prevalence at antenatal clinics, but estimates of incidence in the general population would be more useful. Repeated cross-sectional measures of HIV prevalence are now becoming available for general populations in many countries, and we aim to develop and validate methods that use these data to estimate HIV incidence.Methods and FindingsTwo methods were developed that decompose observed changes in prevalence between two serosurveys into the contributions of new infections and mortality. Method 1 uses cohort mortality rates, and method 2 uses information on survival after infection. The performance of these two methods was assessed using simulated data from a mathematical model and actual data from three community-based cohort studies in Africa. Comparison with simulated data indicated that these methods can accurately estimates incidence rates and changes in incidence in a variety of epidemic conditions. Method 1 is simple to implement but relies on locally appropriate mortality data, whilst method 2 can make use of the same survival distribution in a wide range of scenarios. The estimates from both methods are within the 95% confidence intervals of almost all actual measurements of HIV incidence in adults and young people, and the patterns of incidence over age are correctly captured.ConclusionsIt is possible to estimate incidence from cross-sectional prevalence data with sufficient accuracy to monitor the HIV epidemic. Although these methods will theoretically work in any context, we have able to test them only in southern and eastern Africa, where HIV epidemics are mature and generalised. The choice of method will depend on the local availability of HIV mortality data.