This analysis was performed to determine the effect of initial therapy on the outcomes of thyroid cancer patients. The study setting was a prospectively followed multi-institutional registry. Patients were stratified as low risk (stages I and II) or high risk (stages III and IV). Treatments employed included near-total thyroidectomy, administration of radioactive iodine, and thyroid hormone suppression therapy. Outcome measures were overall survival, disease-specific survival, and disease-free survival. Near-total thyroidectomy, radioactive iodine, and aggressive thyroid hormone suppression therapy were each independently associated with longer overall survival in high-risk patients. Near-total thyroidectomy followed by radioactive iodine therapy, and moderate thyroid hormone suppression therapy, both predicted improved overall survival in stage II patients. No treatment modality, including lack of radioactive iodine, was associated with altered survival in stage I patients. Based on our overall survival data, we confirm that near-total thyroidectomy is indicated in high-risk patients. We also conclude that radioactive iodine therapy is beneficial for stage II, III, and IV patients. Importantly, we show for the first time that superior outcomes are associated with aggressive thyroid hormone suppression therapy in high-risk patients, but are achieved with modest suppression in stage II patients. We were unable to show any impact, positive or negative, of specific therapies in stage I patients.

The American Thyroid Association recommends that adults be screened for thyroid dysfunction by measurement of the serum thyrotropin concentration, beginning at age 35 years and every 5 years thereafter. The indication for screening is particularly compelling in women, but it can also be justified in men as a relatively cost-effective measure in the context of the periodic health examination. Individuals with symptoms and signs potentially attributable to thyroid dysfunction and those with risk factors for its development may require more frequent serum thyrotropin testing.

The ideal therapy for differentiated thyroid cancer is uncertain. Although thyroid hormone treatment is pivotal, the degree of thyrotropin (TSH) suppression that is required to prevent recurrences has not been studied in detail. We have examined the relation of TSH suppression to baseline disease characteristics and to the likelihood of disease progression in a cohort of thyroid cancer patients who have been followed in a multicenter thyroid cancer registry that was established in 1986. The present study describes 617 patients with papillary and 66 patients with follicular thyroid cancer followed annually for a median of 4.5 years (range 1-8.6 years). Cancer staging was assessed using a staging scheme developed and validated by the registry. Cancer status was defined as no residual disease; progressive disease at any follow-up time; or death from thyroid cancer. A mean TSH score was calculated for each patient by averaging all available TSH determinations, where 1 = undetectable TSH; 2 = subnormal TSH; 3 = normal TSH; and 4 = elevated TSH. Patients were also grouped by their TSH scores: group 1: mean TSH score 1.0-1.99; group 2: mean TSH score 2.0-2.99; group 3: mean TSH score 3.0-4.0. The degree of TSH suppression did not differ between papillary and follicular thyroid cancer patients. However, TSH suppression was greater in papillary cancer patients who were initially classified as being at higher risk for recurrence. This was not the case for follicular cancer patients, where TSH suppression was similar for all patients. For all stages of papillary cancer, a Cox proportional hazards model showed that disease stage, patient age, and radioiodine therapy all predicted disease progression, but TSH score category did not. However, TSH score category was an independent predictor of disease progression in high risk patients (p = 0.03), but was no longer significant when radioiodine therapy was included in the model (p = 0.09). There were too few patients with follicular cancer for multivariate analysis. These data suggest that physicians use greater degrees of TSH suppression in higher risk papillary cancer patients. Our data do not support the concept that greater degrees of TSH suppression are required to prevent disease progression in low-risk patients, but this possibility remains in high-risk patients. Additional studies with more patients and longer follow-up may provide the answer to this important question.

Although the overall outcome of women with PTC is similar to men, subgroup analysis showed that this composite outcome is composed of two periods with different outcomes. The first period is a period with better outcomes for women than men when the diagnosis occurs at younger than 55 yr; the second is a period with similar outcomes for both women and men diagnosed at ages greater than 55 yr. These data raise the question of whether an older age cutoff would improve current staging systems. We hypothesize that older age modifies the effect of gender on outcomes due to menopause-associated hormonal alterations.

BACKGROUND A novel prognostic staging classification encompassing all forms of thyroid carcinoma was created for the National Thyroid Cancer Treatment Cooperative Study (NTCTCS) Registry, with the goal of prospective validation and comparison with other available staging classifications. METHODS Patient information was recorded prospectively from 14 institutions. Clinicopathologic staging was based on patient age at diagnosis, tumor histology, tumor size, intrathyroidal multifocality, extraglandular invasion, metastases, and tumor differentiation. RESULTS Between 1987 and 1995, 1607 patients were registered. Approximately 43% of patients were classified as NTCTCS Stage I, 24% Stage II, 24% Stage III, and 9% Stage IV. Patients with follicular carcinoma were more likely to have "high risk" Stage III or IV disease than those with papillary carcinoma. Of 1562 patients for whom censored follow‐up was available (median follow‐up, 40 months), 78 died of thyroid carcinoma or complications of its treatment. Five‐year product‐limit patient disease specific survival was 99.8% for Stage I, 100% for Stage II, 91.9% for Stage III, and 48.9% for Stage IV (P < 0.0001). The frequency of remaining disease free also declined significantly with increasing stage (94.3% for Stage I, 93.1% for Stage II, 77.8% for Stage III, and 24.6% for Stage IV). The same patients also were staged applying six previously published classifications as appropriate for their tumor type. The predictive value of the NTCTCS Registry staging classification consistently was among the highest for disease specific mortality and for remaining disease free, regardless of the tumor type. Conclusions The NTCTCS Registry staging classification provides a prospectively validated scheme for predicting short term prognosis for patients with thyroid carcinoma. [See editorial counterpoint on pages 844‐7 and reply to counterpoint on pages 848‐50, this issue.] Cancer 1998;83:1012‐1021. © 1998 American Cancer Society.