The Horizontal Wind Model (HWM) has been updated in the thermosphere with new observations and formulation changes. These new data are ground-based 630 nm Fabry-Perot Interferometer (FPI) measurements in the equatorial and polar regions, as well as cross-track winds from the Gravity Field and Steady State Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite. The GOCE wind observations provide valuable wind data in the twilight regions. The ground-based FPI measurements fill latitudinal data gaps in the prior observational database. Construction of this reference model also provides the opportunity to compare these new measurements. The resulting update (HWM14) provides an improved time-dependent, observationally based, global empirical specification of the upper atmospheric general circulation patterns and migrating tides. In basic agreement with existing accepted theoretical knowledge of the thermosphere general circulation, additional calculations indicate that the empirical wind specifications are self-consistent with climatological ionosphere plasma distribution and electric field patterns.

We present a statistical attribution analysis of the changes in global annual average thermospheric mass density and ionospheric total electron content (TEC) between the cycle 22/23 solar minimum (which occurred at epoch 1996.4) and the prolonged cycle 23/24 minimum (2008.8). The mass density data are derived from orbital drag, and the TEC data are derived from ground-based GPS receivers. The interminima change in mass density was À36% relative to the 1996.4 yearly average. Considering each multiplicative forcing independently, lower average geomagnetic activity during the cycle 23/24 minimum produced an interminima density change of at least À14%, solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance forcing produced a density change of À1% to À13%, and changes in thermospheric CO 2 concentration produced a density change of À5%. There was essentially no interminima change in global TEC derived from ground-based GPS receivers or space-based altimeters, even though past behavior suggests that it should have changed À3% (0.2 TEC units (1 TECU = 10 16 el m À2 )) in response to lower geomagnetic activity and À1% to À9% (0.1-0.8 TECU) in response to lower EUV irradiance. There is large uncertainty in the interminima change of solar EUV irradiance; the mass density and TEC data suggest a plausible range of 0% to À6%.

[1] The day-to-day variability in ionospheric irregularity generation giving rise to equatorial scintillation has remained an unresolved issue over many decades. We take a fresh look at the problem utilizing the global imagery provided by the Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) instrument on NASA's Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. GUVI has been acquiring images of 135.6-nm emission in the Earth's ionosphere-thermosphere system since 2001. These GUVI disk images at dusk have been used to identify cases where the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crests lie near the magnetic equator over a relatively narrow longitude range, so that the anomaly looks collapsed. A 16-month period of GUVI data collected during evening at solar maximum is used to study the morphology of these so-called collapses, since the EIA collapse is shown to be linked to the suppression of equatorial plasma bubbles and scintillations. In particular, we look at the June solstice, during which the Atlantic and Pacific show very different climatology and EIA collapses are most frequent in the GUVI data. On the other hand, EIA collapses are a relatively rare occurrence during the equinox period when scintillations are most prevalent globally. We obtained a few dramatic examples of day-to-day variability in EIA behavior and scintillations over India. The Sami3 is Also a Model of the Ionosphere (SAMI3) model was used to investigate the conditions during the evening collapse of the anomaly in the Indian longitude sector, where measurements of total electron content (TEC) and scintillations and estimates of the daytime vertical drifts and those at dusk were available. Results from SAMI3 show that the observed collapse of the anomaly at dusk can be simulated by a reversal of the upward vertical drift in midafternoon in agreement with the drift estimates from magnetometer observations. Such reversed vertical drifts at this time of the day are generally seen during counterelectrojet events. Introduction of neutral winds into SAMI3 better approximates the dusk behavior of TEC at low-latitude stations in India. This study reveals that the longitudinally confined EIA collapse may explain some of the differences in day-to-day variability of scintillations at different locations around the globe.

We use a new data product of electron column density (total electron content, or TEC) maps to estimate and attribute the interminimum changes (the differences between annual averages centered on the 2008 and 1996 solar minima) in TEC global and hemispheric averages (dividing the globe in three different ways). We attribute the observed changes to corresponding changes in solar and geomagnetic activity. The new TEC map product was constructed with temporally consistent processing, and it resolves some of the apparent inconsistencies of earlier studies. The estimated global average TEC interminimum change is −19.3% ± 1.0% (2σ uncertainty), of which −9.1% is attributable to the interminimum change in solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance (as represented by the F10.7 index), −2.2% is attributable to the change in geomagnetic activity (Kp index), and −9.3% remains unattributed. The hemispheric results are very similar to the global results, but the values tend to be slightly larger in the Southern Hemisphere, at low latitudes, and at night, compared to the opposing respective hemispheres. The interminimum changes and temporal variations of thermospheric mass density anomalies (i.e., the difference between the data and the empirical model) are very similar to those of the global and hemispheric TEC residuals, suggesting that they are driven by a common, globally distributed mechanism. Thermospheric composition changes and additional (unobserved) decreases in solar EUV irradiance are possible mechanisms behind the TEC and mass density unattributed changes; we estimate a plausible range of −6% to −13% for the solar EUV irradiance interminimum change.

We have performed simulations using the Naval Research Laboratory's physics‐based model of the ionosphere, Sami3 is A Model of the Ionosphere (SAMI3), to illustrate how neutral wind dynamics is responsible for day‐to‐day variability of the ionosphere. We have used neutral winds specified from the extended version of the specified dynamics Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD‐WACCM‐X), in which meteorology below 92 km is constrained by atmospheric specifications from an operational weather forecast model and reanalysis. To assess the realism of the simulations against observations, we have carried out a case study during January–February 2009, a dynamically disturbed time characterized by a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) commencing 24 January 2009. Model results are compared with total electron content (TEC) from Jet Propulsion Laboratory global ionospheric maps. We show that SAMI3/SD‐WACCM‐X captures longitudinal variability in the equatorial ionization anomaly associated with nonmigrating tides, with strongest contributions coming from the diurnal eastward wave number 2 (DE2) and DE3. Both migrating and nonmigrating tides contribute to significant day‐to‐day variability, with TEC varying up to 16%. Our simulation during the SSW period reveals that at the Jicamarca longitude (285°E) on 27 January 2009 nonmigrating tides contribute to an enhancement of the electron density in the morning followed by a decrease in the afternoon. An enhancement of the semidiurnal eastward wave number 2 (SE2) and SE3 nonmigrating tides, likely associated with the appearance of the SSW, suggests that these tides increase the longitudinal variability of the SSW impact on the ionosphere. The conclusion is that realistic meteorology propagating upward from the lower atmosphere influences the dynamo region and reproduces aspects of the observed variability in the ionosphere.