Global climate change is known to result in the emergence or re-emergence of some infectious diseases. Reliable methods to identify the infectious diseases of humans and animals and that are most likely to be influenced by climate are therefore required. Since different priorities will affect the decision to address a particular pathogen threat, decision makers need a standardised method of prioritisation. Ranking methods and Multi-Criteria Decision approaches provide such a standardised method and were employed here to design two different pathogen prioritisation tools. The opinion of 64 experts was elicited to assess the importance of 40 criteria that could be used to prioritise emerging infectious diseases of humans and animals in Canada. A weight was calculated for each criterion according to the expert opinion. Attributes were defined for each criterion as a transparent and repeatable method of measurement. Two different Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis tools were tested, both of which used an additive aggregation approach. These were an Excel spreadsheet tool and a tool developed in software ‘M-MACBETH’. The tools were trialed on nine ‘test’ pathogens. Two different methods of criteria weighting were compared, one using fixed weighting values, the other using probability distributions to account for uncertainty and variation in expert opinion. The ranking of the nine pathogens varied according to the weighting method that was used. In both tools, using both weighting methods, the diseases that tended to rank the highest were West Nile virus, Giardiasis and Chagas, while Coccidioidomycosis tended to rank the lowest. Both tools are a simple and user friendly approach to prioritising pathogens according to climate change by including explicit scoring of 40 criteria and incorporating weighting methods based on expert opinion. They provide a dynamic interactive method that can help to identify pathogens for which a full risk assessment should be pursued.
Information taken from two long-term demographic studies on Orchis morio L. and Heminiurn monorchis (L.) R.Br. is used to explore some of the factors which influence flowering. The proportion of plants which flowered each year varied considerably between species, flowering in 0. morio exceeding 40% in all years except one over an 18 year period; over a 30 year period , the number of plants of Herminium in flower never exceeded 36% of the population and no inflorescences were produced in 1977 and 1991. The relationship between flowering in Heminiurn in a given year and the monthly rainfall and temperature for the current and 3 previous years was analysed using logistic regression. Best fits were obtained using data for the summer months in the previous year, with an increasing flowering rate with rainfall and a decline with temperature. It is hypothesized that drought and high temperatures in the summer reduce leaf area and cause premature senescence and the death of leaves, with the result that not enough carbohydrates are stored to enable plants to support or initiate inflorescences the following year. For species such as Orchis morio which produce leaves in the autumn and remain green, summer drought causes no problems as they have no above ground organs. Factors which influence flowering in this species are as yet unknown. 0 1998 The Linnean Society of London ADDITIONAL KEY WORDS:--climatic factorsdroughtinflorescence initiation logistic regressionorchidsplant performance.
Temperature is hypothesized to contribute to increased pathogenicity and virulence of many marine diseases. The sea louse (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) is an ectoparasite of salmonids that exhibits strong life-history plasticity in response to temperature; however, the effect of temperature on the epidemiology of this parasite has not been rigorously examined. We used matrix population modelling to examine the influence of temperature on demographic parameters of sea lice parasitizing farmed salmon. Demographically-stochastic population projection matrices were created using parameters from the existing literature on vital rates of sea lice at different fixed temperatures and yearly temperature profiles. In addition, we quantified the effectiveness of a single stage-specific control applied at different times during a year with seasonal temperature changes. We found that the epidemic potential of sea lice increased with temperature due to a decrease in generation time and an increase in the net reproductive rate. In addition, mate limitation constrained population growth more at low temperatures than at high temperatures. Our model predicts that control measures targeting preadults and chalimus are most effective regardless of the temperature. The predictions from this model suggest that temperature can dramatically change vital rates of sea lice and can increase population growth. The results of this study suggest that sea surface temperatures should be considered when choosing salmon farm sites and designing management plans to control sea louse infestations. More broadly, this study demonstrates the utility of matrix population modelling for epidemiological studies.
Sea lice, Lepeophtheirus salmonis, are ectoparasites of farmed and wild salmonids. Infestations can result in significant morbidity and mortality of hosts in addition to being costly to control. Integrated pest management programmes have been developed to manage infestations, and in some salmon farming areas, these programmes include the use of wrasse. Wrasse prey upon the parasitic life stages of L. salmonis and can be stocked on farms at varying densities. Despite considerable variation in the usage of wrasse, there are few quantitative estimates of how well they can control sea lice and how best to optimize their use. To explore at what densities wrasse should be stocked in order to meet specific control targets, we built an individual-based model that simulates sea lice infestation patterns on a representative salmonid host. Sea lice can be controlled through the use of chemical treatments as well as by wrasse predators. We found that the wrasse can effectively control sea lice, and the densities of wrasse needed for effective control depend upon the source of the infestation and the targeted level of control. Effective usage of wrasse can result in decreased use of chemical treatments and improved control of sea lice.
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