BACKGROUND Men who undergo radical prostatectomy (RP) are at long‐term risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR). In this report, the authors have described a model capable of predicting BCR up to at least 15 years after RP that can adjust predictions according to the disease‐free interval. METHODS Cox regression was used to model the probability of BCR (a prostate‐specific antigen level >0.1 ng/mL and rising) in 601 men who underwent RP with a median follow‐up of 11.4 years. The statistical significance of nomogram predictors was confirmed with a competing‐risks regression model. The model was validated internally with 200 bootstraps and externally at 5 years, 10 years, and 15 years in 2 independent cohorts of 2963 and 3178 contemporary RP patients from 2 institutions. RESULTS The 5‐year, 10‐year, 15‐year, and 20‐year actuarial rates of BCR‐free survival were 84.8%, 71.2%, 61.1%, and 58.6%, respectively. Pathologic stage, surgical margin status, pathologic Gleason sum, type of RP, and adjuvant radiotherapy represented independent predictors of BCR in both Cox and competing‐risks regression models and constituted the nomogram predictor variables. In internal validation, the nomogram accuracy was 79.3%, 77.2%, 79.7%, and 80.6% at 5 years, 10 years, 15 years, and 20 years, respectively, after RP. In external validation, the nomogram was 77.4% accurate at 5 years in the first cohort and 77.9%, 79.4%, and 86.3% accurate at 5 years, 10 years, and 15 years, respectively, in the second cohort. CONCLUSIONS Patients who undergo RP remain at risk of BCR beyond 10 years after RP. The nomogram described in this report distinguishes itself from other tools by its ability to accurately predict the conditional probability of BCR up to at least 15 years after surgery. Cancer 2008. © 2008 American Cancer Society.

This is one of the most mature radical prostatectomy series. It demonstrates that long-term biochemical cancer control outcomes after radical prostatectomy might be suboptimal. However, local and distant control outcomes are excellent, and cancer specific mortality is minimal even 25 years after surgery.

In making its recommendations, the panel presented treatment alternatives as options, identifying the advantages and disadvantages of each, and recommended as a standard that patients with newly diagnosed, clinically localized prostate cancer should be informed of all commonly accepted treatment options.

In making its recommendations, the panel presented treatment alternatives as options, identifying the advantages and disadvantages of each, and recommended as a standard that patients with newly diagnosed, clinically localized prostate cancer should be informed of all commonly accepted treatment options.

For patients with early-stage prostate cancer, average costs during the initial treatment interval were at least 23% greater for radical prostatectomy than for external-beam radiation. Major limitations of the research include not studying costs after the initial treatment interval and questionable current applicability, given changes in management of early prostate cancer.