No abstract

Aim The koala is a widely distributed Australian marsupial with regional populations that are in rapid decline, are stable or have increased in size. This study examined whether it is possible to use expert elicitation to estimate abundance and trends of populations of this species. Diverse opinions exist about estimates of abundance and, consequently, the status of populations. Location Eastern and south-eastern AustraliaMethods Using a structured, four-step question format, a panel of 15 experts estimated population sizes of koalas and changes in those sizes for bioregions within four states. They provided their lowest plausible estimate, highest plausible estimate, best estimate and their degree of confidence that the true values were contained within these upper and lower estimates. We derived estimates of the mean population size of koalas and associated uncertainties for each bioregion and state.Results On the basis of estimates of mean population sizes for each bioregion and state, we estimated that the total number of koalas for Australia is 329,000 (range 144,000-605,000) with an estimated average decline of 24% over the past three generations and the next three generations. Estimated percentage of loss in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia was 53%, 26%, 14% and 3%, respectively.Main conclusions It was not necessary to achieve high levels of certainty or consensus among experts before making informed estimates. A quantitative, scientific method for deriving estimates of koala populations and trends was possible, in the absence of empirical data on abundances.

The diet of feral cats (Felis catus) was studied at Lake Burrendong, central-eastern New South Wales, from July 1994 to June 1997. Mammals were the major prey in 499 scats that were analysed. Rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) were the staple prey, while carrion was an important secondary food. Invertebrates, other mammalian prey, vegetation, birds and reptiles were generally minor components of the diet. Few significant seasonal differences in diet were found; however, invertebrates contributed less and possums more to the diet in winter and summer respectively. A significant dietary response was found to changes in rabbit abundance, but not for the other prey types. Cats continued to prey heavily on rabbits even after a 90% decline in rabbit abundance occurred, which coincided with the advent of Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD). House mice (Mus domesticus) increased in importance in the diet ten months post-RCD. Although the abundance of cats was correlated with the abundance of some prey species, other factors may have influenced the observed patterns; these are discussed.

Apex predators are subject to lethal control in many parts of the world to minimize their impacts on human industries and livelihoods. Diverse communities of smaller predators—mesopredators—often remain after apex predator removal. Despite concern that these mesopredators may be 'released' in the absence of the apex predator and exert negative effects on each other and on co-occurring prey, these interactions have been little studied. Here, we investigate the potential effects of competition and intraguild predation between red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cats (Felis catus) in south-eastern Australia where the apex predator, the dingo (Canis dingo), has been extirpated by humans. We predicted that the larger fox would dominate the cat in encounters, and used a fox-removal experiment to assess whether foxes affect cat abundance, diet, home-range and habitat use. Our results provide little indication that intraguild predation occurred or that cats responded numerically to the fox removal, but suggest that the fox affects some aspects of cat resource use. In particular, where foxes were removed cats increased their consumption of invertebrates and carrion, decreased their home range size and foraged more in open habitats. Fox control takes place over large areas of Australia to protect threatened native species and agricultural interests. Our results suggest that fox control programmes could lead to changes in the way that cats interact with co-occurring prey, and that some prey may become more vulnerable to cat predation in open habitats after foxes have been removed. Moreover, with intensive and more sustained fox control it is possible that cats could respond numerically and alter their behaviour in different ways to those documented herein. Such outcomes need to be considered when estimating the indirect impacts of fox control. We conclude that novel approaches are urgently required to control invasive mesopredators at the same time, especially in areas where apex predators are absent.

Twenty-one feral cats were radio-tracked using direct sighting and triangulation techniques (amassing 730 location fixes) during winter in an agricultural landscape in central-western New South Wales. Factors affecting home-range size, home-range overlap and habitat use were assessed. Mean home-range size was 248 ha (s.e. = 34.9, n = 15 cats, 598 location fixes). Home-range size and habitat use were not influenced by sex or age of adult cats, prey abundance or time of day. However, cat weight significantly influenced range size, with heavier cats having larger ranges than smaller cats. Although the cats are apparently solitary, their home ranges overlapped considerably, particularly between young adults and old adult cats. Cats were active both by day and night and did not occupy permanent dens. Home ranges encompassed mixed habitat types that provided both shelter and prey. Open woodland and open forest were the main habitat types covered by home ranges, but within these areas cats showed a preference for grassland, where rabbits were more abundant. The results recorded in this study indicate that cat-control programs should concentrate in mixed habitat areas, where both shelter and food are available, and over widely dispersed areas. The absence of group living suggests that the effectiveness of virally vectored fertility or biological control agents would be limited.