SummaryBackgroundIntracerebral haemorrhage growth is associated with poor clinical outcome and is a therapeutic target for improving outcome. We aimed to determine the absolute risk and predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth, develop and validate prediction models, and evaluate the added value of CT angiography.MethodsIn a systematic review of OVID MEDLINE—with additional hand-searching of relevant studies' bibliographies— from Jan 1, 1970, to Dec 31, 2015, we identified observational cohorts and randomised trials with repeat scanning protocols that included at least ten patients with acute intracerebral haemorrhage. We sought individual patient-level data from corresponding authors for patients aged 18 years or older with data available from brain imaging initially done 0·5–24 h and repeated fewer than 6 days after symptom onset, who had baseline intracerebral haemorrhage volume of less than 150 mL, and did not undergo acute treatment that might reduce intracerebral haemorrhage volume. We estimated the absolute risk and predictors of the primary outcome of intracerebral haemorrhage growth (defined as >6 mL increase in intracerebral haemorrhage volume on repeat imaging) using multivariable logistic regression models in development and validation cohorts in four subgroups of patients, using a hierarchical approach: patients not taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset (who constituted the largest subgroup), patients taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset, patients from cohorts that included at least some patients taking anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset, and patients for whom both information about anticoagulant therapy at intracerebral haemorrhage onset and spot sign on acute CT angiography were known.FindingsOf 4191 studies identified, 77 were eligible for inclusion. Overall, 36 (47%) cohorts provided data on 5435 eligible patients. 5076 of these patients were not taking anticoagulant therapy at symptom onset (median age 67 years, IQR 56–76), of whom 1009 (20%) had intracerebral haemorrhage growth. Multivariable models of patients with data on antiplatelet therapy use, data on anticoagulant therapy use, and assessment of CT angiography spot sign at symptom onset showed that time from symptom onset to baseline imaging (odds ratio 0·50, 95% CI 0·36–0·70; p<0·0001), intracerebral haemorrhage volume on baseline imaging (7·18, 4·46–11·60; p<0·0001), antiplatelet use (1·68, 1·06–2·66; p=0·026), and anticoagulant use (3·48, 1·96–6·16; p<0·0001) were independent predictors of intracerebral haemorrhage growth (C-index 0·78, 95% CI 0·75–0·82). Addition of CT angiography spot sign (odds ratio 4·46, 95% CI 2·95–6·75; p<0·0001) to the model increased the C-index by 0·05 (95% CI 0·03–0·07).InterpretationIn this large patient-level meta-analysis, models using four or five predictors had acceptable to good discrimination. These models could inform the location and frequency of observations on patients in clinical practice, explain treatment effects i...

Background and Purpose— Acute blood pressure (BP) reduction aimed at attenuation of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) expansion might also compromise cerebral blood flow (CBF). We tested the hypothesis that CBF in acute ICH patients is unaffected by BP reduction. Methods— Patients with spontaneous ICH <24 hours after onset and systolic BP > 150 mm Hg were randomly assigned to an intravenous antihypertensive treatment protocol targeting a systolic BP of <150 mm Hg (n=39) or <180 mm Hg (n=36). Patients underwent computed tomography perfusion imaging 2 hours postrandomization. The primary end point was perihematoma relative (relative CBF). Results— Treatment groups were balanced with respect to baseline systolic BP: 182±20 mm Hg (<150 mm Hg target group) versus 184±25 mm Hg (<180 mm Hg target group; P =0.60), and for hematoma volume: 25.6±30.8 versus 26.9±25.2 mL ( P =0.66). Mean systolic BP 2 hours after randomization was significantly lower in the <150 mm Hg target group (140±19 vs 162±12 mm Hg; P <0.001). Perihematoma CBF (38.7±11.9 mL/100 g per minute) was lower than in contralateral homologous regions (44.1±11.1 mL/100 g per minute; P <0.001) in all patients. The primary end point of perihematoma relative CBF in the <150 mm Hg target group (0.86±0.12) was not significantly lower than that in the <180 mm Hg group (0.89±0.09; P =0.19; absolute difference, 0.03; 95% confidence interval −0.018 to 0.078). There was no relationship between the magnitude of BP change and perihematoma relative CBF in the <150 mm Hg ( R =0.00005; 95% confidence interval, −0.001 to 0.001) or <180 mm Hg target groups ( R =0.000; 95% confidence interval, −0.001 to 0.001). Conclusions— Rapid BP lowering after a moderate volume of ICH does not reduce perihematoma CBF. These physiological data indicate that acute BP reduction does not precipitate cerebral ischemia in ICH patients. Clinical Trial Registration Information— URL: http://clinicaltrials.gov . Unique Identifier: NCT00963976.