To determine whether childhood elevated fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels within the normoglycemic range predict diabetes in adulthood.

OBJECTIVE -That type 2 diabetes is associated with the metabolic syndrome is known. However, information is lacking regarding the long-term and adverse changes of metabolic syndrome variables in the development of type 2 diabetes from childhood to adulthood.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS -Observations were examined, retrospectively, in a community-based cohort of normoglycemic (n ϭ 1,838), pre-diabetic (n ϭ 90), and type 2 diabetic (n ϭ 60) subjects followed serially for cardiovascular risk factors during childhood (4 -11 years), adolescence (12-18 years), and adulthood (19 -44 years).RESULTS -Diabetic subjects versus normoglycemic subjects had significantly higher levels of subscapular skinfold, BMI, triglycerides, glucose, insulin, and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance and lower levels of HDL cholesterol beginning in childhood and higher levels of mean arterial pressure (MAP) in adolescence and adulthood. In a multivariate model including BMI, MAP, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, and insulin, adjusted for age, age 2 , race, sex, and race ϫ sex interaction, adverse changes in glucose and LDL cholesterol were independently associated with pre-diabetic subjects, whereas adverse changes in BMI, glucose, and HDL cholesterol were associated with diabetic subjects. As young adults, pre-diabetic and diabetic groups displayed a significantly higher prevalence of obesity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, hyperinsulinemia, and metabolic syndrome.CONCLUSIONS -These findings indicate that adverse levels of risk variables of metabolic syndrome, adiposity, and measures of glucose homeostasis accelerating since childhood characterize the early natural history of type 2 diabetes and underscore the importance of early prevention and intervention on risk factors beginning in childhood.

OBJECTIVEThis study examines the usefulness of childhood glucose homeostasis variables (glucose, insulin, and insulin resistance index [homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance {HOMA-IR}]) in predicting pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes and related cardiometabolic risk factors in adulthood.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSThis retrospective cohort study consisted of normoglycemic (n = 1,058), pre-diabetic (n = 37), and type 2 diabetic (n = 25) adults aged 19–39 years who were followed on average for 17 years since childhood.RESULTSAt least 50% of the individuals who ranked highest (top quintile) in childhood for glucose homeostasis variables maintained their high rank by being above the 60th percentile in adulthood. In a multivariate model, the best predictors of adulthood glucose homeostasis variables were the change in BMI Z score from childhood to adulthood and childhood BMI Z score, followed by the corresponding childhood levels of glucose, insulin, and HOMA-IR. Further, children in the top decile versus the rest for insulin and HOMA-IR were 2.85 and 2.55 times, respectively, more likely to develop pre-diabetes; children in the top decile versus the rest for glucose, insulin, and HOMA-IR were 3.28, 5.54, and 5.84 times, respectively, more likely to develop diabetes, independent of change in BMI Z score, baseline BMI Z score, and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio. In addition, children with adverse levels (top quintile versus the rest) of glucose homeostasis variables displayed significantly higher prevalences of, among others, hyperglycemia, hypertriglyceridemia, and metabolic syndrome.CONCLUSIONSAdverse levels of glucose homeostasis variables in childhood not only persist into adulthood but also predict adult pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes and relate to cardiometabolic risk factors.

Although youth with MetS are at increased risk of adult high IMT and T2DM, these data indicate that the resolution of youth MetS by adulthood can go some way to normalize this risk to levels seen in those who have never had MetS.

OBJECTIVEElevations in alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and γ-glutamyl transferase (GGT), surrogate markers of liver dysfunction and nonalcoholic fatty liver, are considered as part of metabolic syndrome and related type 2 diabetes. However, information is limited regarding the long-term predictability of ALT and GGT in the development of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSIn this retrospective cohort study, normoglycemic (n = 874), prediabetic (n = 101), and diabetic (n = 80) adults aged 26–50 years (average age 41.3 years) were followed over an average period of 16 years since their young adulthood (aged 18–38 years, average age 25.1 years), with measurements of cardiometabolic risk factor variables including ALT and GGT.RESULTSThe follow-up prevalence rate of adult diabetes status by quartiles of baseline ALT and GGT levels showed an adverse trend for both prediabetes (P < 0.05) and diabetes (P < 0.01). In a longitudinal multivariate logistic regression analysis that included anthropometric, hemodynamic, and metabolic variables, as well as alcohol consumption and smoking, individuals with elevated baseline ALT and GGT levels (per 1-SD increment) were 1.16 and 1.20 times, respectively, more likely to develop diabetes (P = 0.05 for ALT and P < 0.01 for GGT); no such associations were noted for prediabetes. Regarding the predictive value of ALT and GGT, the area under the receiver operating curve analysis yielded C values ranging from 0.70 to 0.82, with values significantly higher for diabetes compared with prediabetes.CONCLUSIONSThese findings in younger adults suggest potential clinical utility of including ALT and GGT as biomarkers in diabetes risk assessment formulations.