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We present a sparse sensing framework based on Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) to identify flow regimes and bifurcations in large-scale thermo-fluid systems. Motivated by real-time sensing and control of thermal-fluid flows in buildings and equipment, we apply this method to a Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) data set of a 2D laterally heated cavity. The resulting flow solutions can be divided into several regimes, ranging from steady to chaotic flow. The DMD modes and eigenvalues capture the main temporal and spatial scales in the dynamics belonging to different regimes. Our proposed classification method is data-driven, robust w.r.t measurement noise, and exploits the dynamics extracted from the DMD method. Namely, we construct an augmented DMD basis, with "built-in" dynamics, given by the DMD eigenvalues. This allows us to employ a short time-series of data from sensors, to more robustly classify flow regimes, particularly in the presence of measurement noise. We also exploit the incoherence exhibited among the data generated by different regimes, which persists even if the number of measurements is small compared to the dimension of the DNS data. The data-driven regime identification algorithm can enable robust low-order modeling of flows for state estimation and control.

In certain two-dimensional time-dependent flows, the braiding of periodic orbits provides a way to analyze chaos in the system through application of the Thurston-Nielsen classification theorem (TNCT). We expand upon earlier work that introduced the application of the TNCT to braiding of almost-cyclic sets, which are individual components of almost-invariant sets [Stremler et al., "Topological chaos and periodic braiding of almost-cyclic sets," Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 114101 (2011)]. In this context, almost-cyclic sets are periodic regions in the flow with high local residence time that act as stirrers or "ghost rods" around which the surrounding fluid appears to be stretched and folded. In the present work, we discuss the bifurcation of the almost-cyclic sets as a system parameter is varied, which results in a sequence of topologically distinct braids. We show that, for Stokes' flow in a lid-driven cavity, these various braids give good lower bounds on the topological entropy over the respective parameter regimes in which they exist. We make the case that a topological analysis based on spatiotemporal braiding of almost-cyclic sets can be used for analyzing chaos in fluid flows. Hence, we further develop a connection between set-oriented statistical methods and topological methods, which promises to be an important analysis tool in the study of complex systems. When a body of fluid moves, whether it be in the atmosphere, an ocean, or a kitchen sink, there are often regions of fluid that move together for an extended period of time. As these coherent sets of fluid trace out trajectories in space and time, they can be thought of as "stirring" the surrounding fluid. The entanglement of these trajectories as they "braid" around each other is connected to the level of chaos present in the fluid system. When the sets return periodically to their initial positions in a twodimensional, time-dependent system, the entanglement of their trajectories can be used to predict a lower bound on the rate of stretching in the surrounding domain. We examine the trajectories of such "almost-cyclic sets" in a lid-driven cavity flow and demonstrate that this combination of topological analysis with set-oriented methods can be an effective means of predicting chaos. The characterization of the entanglement and associated prediction of stretching are achieved through application of the Thurston-Nielsen Classification Theorem, which in general classifies the topological complexity of homeomorphisms of punctured surfaces. While a rigorous lower bound on topological entropy is not available in the absence of exactly periodic braiding structures, our approach finds the "topological skeleton" that can be used to get an approximate rate of stretching.

Empirically derived continuum models of collective behavior among large populations of dynamic agents are a subject of intense study in several fields, including biology, engineering, and finance. We formulate and study a mean-field game model whose behavior mimics an empirically derived nonlocal homogeneous flocking model for agents with gradient self-propulsion dynamics. The mean-field game framework provides a non-cooperative optimal control description of the behavior of a population of agents in a distributed setting. In this description, each agent's state is driven by optimally controlled dynamics that result in a Nash equilibrium between itself and the population. The optimal control is computed by minimizing a cost that depends only on its own state and a mean-field term. The agent distribution in phase space evolves under the optimal feedback control policy. We exploit the low-rank perturbative nature of the nonlocal term in the forward-backward system of equations governing the state and control distributions and provide a closed-loop linear stability analysis demonstrating that our model exhibits bifurcations similar to those found in the empirical model. The present work is a step towards developing a set of tools for systematic analysis, and eventually design, of collective behavior of non-cooperative dynamic agents via an inverse modeling approach.

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