Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly become a global pandemic. Because the severity of the disease is highly variable, predictive models to stratify patients according to their mortality risk are needed. Objective: Our aim was to develop a model able to predict the risk of fatal outcome in patients with COVID-19 that could be used easily at the time of patients' arrival at the hospital. Methods: We constructed a prospective cohort with 611 adult patients in whom COVID-19 was diagnosed between March 10 and April 12, 2020, in a tertiary hospital in Madrid, Spain. The analysis included 501 patients who had been discharged or had died by April 20, 2020. The capacity of several biomarkers, measured at the beginning of hospitalization, to predict mortality was assessed individually. Those biomarkers that independently contributed to improve mortality prediction were included in a multivariable risk model. Results: High IL-6 level, C-reactive protein level, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, ferritin level, D-dimer level, neutrophil count, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio were all predictive of mortality (area under the curve >0.70), as were low albumin level, lymphocyte count, monocyte count, and ratio of peripheral blood oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen (SpO 2 /FiO 2). A multivariable mortality risk model including the SpO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, LDH level, IL-6 level, and age was developed and showed high accuracy for the prediction of fatal outcome (area under the curve 0.94). The optimal cutoff reliably classified patients (including patients with no initial respiratory distress) as survivors and nonsurvivors with 0.88 sensitivity and 0.89 specificity. Conclusion: This mortality risk model allows early risk stratification of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 before the appearance of obvious signs of clinical deterioration, and it can be used as a tool to guide clinical decision making. (J Allergy Clin Immunol 2020;146:799-807.)
The evaluation of CD4CD25CD62LCD45RO aTreg cells may be useful as pretransplantation predictive biomarker of AR in kidney transplant patients. Definitive confirmation of our results awaits tests in validation groups.
Objective
Patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) present coagulation abnormalities and thromboembolic events that resemble antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). This work has aimed to study the prevalence of APS‐related antigens, antibodies, and immune complexes in patients with COVID‐19 and their association with clinical events.
Methods
A prospective study was conducted on 474 adults with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection hospitalized in two Spanish university hospitals. Patients were evaluated for classic and extra‐criteria antiphospholipid antibodies (aPLs), immunoglobulin G (IgG)/immunoglobulin M (IgM) anticardiolipin, IgG/IgM/immunoglobulin A (IgA) anti‐β2‐glicoprotein‐I (aβ2GPI), IgG/IgM antiphosphatidylserine/prothrombin (aPS/PT), the immune complex of IgA aβ2GPI (IgA‐aβ2GPI), bounded to β2‐glicoprotein‐1 (β2GPI) and β2GPI levels soon after COVID‐19 diagnosis and were followed‐up until medical discharge or death.
Results
Prevalence of aPLs in patients with COVID‐19 was as follows: classic aPLs, 5.8%; aPS/PT, 4.6%; IgA‐aβ2GPI, 15%; and any aPL, 21%. When patients were compared with individuals of a control group of a similar age, the only significant difference found was the higher prevalence of IgA‐aβ2GPI (odds ratio: 2.31; 95% confidence interval: 1.16‐4.09). No significant differences were observed in survival, thrombosis, or ventilatory failure in aPL‐positive versus aPL‐negative patients. β2GPI median levels were much lower in patients with COVID‐19 (15.9 mg/l) than in blood donors (168.8 mg/l; P < 0.001). Only 3.5% of patients with COVID‐19 had normal levels of β2GPI (>85 mg/l). Low levels of β2GPI were significantly associated with ventilatory failure (P = 0.026).
Conclusion
β2GPI levels were much lower in patients with COVID‐19 than in healthy people. Low β2GPI‐levels were associated with ventilatory failure. No differences were observed in the COVID‐19 evolution between aPL‐positive and aPL‐negative patients. Functional β2GPI deficiency could trigger a clinical process similar to that seen in APS but in the absence of aPLs.
Pretransplantation sensitization against MICA and HLA are independent events. Preformed anti-MICA antibodies independently increase risk for kidney rejection and enhance the deleterious effect of PRA+ status early after transplantation.
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