SUMMARY ERA-40 is a re-analysis of meteorological observations from September 1957 to August 2002 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in collaboration with many institutions. The observing system changed considerably over this re-analysis period, with assimilable data provided by a succession of satellite-borne instruments from the 1970s onwards, supplemented by increasing numbers of observations from aircraft, ocean-buoys and other surface platforms, but with a declining number of radiosonde ascents since the late 1980s. The observations used in ERA-40 were accumulated from many sources. The first part of this paper describes the data acquisition and the principal changes in data type and coverage over the period. It also describes the data assimilation system used for ERA-40. This benefited from many of the changes introduced into operational forecasting since the mid-1990s, when the systems used for the 15-year ECMWF re-analysis (ERA-15) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis were implemented. Several of the improvements are discussed. General aspects of the production of the analyses are also summarized.A number of results indicative of the overall performance of the data assimilation system, and implicitly of the observing system, are presented and discussed. The comparison of background (short-range) forecasts and analyses with observations, the consistency of the global mass budget, the magnitude of differences between analysis and background fields and the accuracy of medium-range forecasts run from the ERA-40 analyses are illustrated. Several results demonstrate the marked improvement that was made to the observing system for the * Corresponding author: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading RG2 9AX, UK. e-mail: adrian.simmons@ecmwf. southern hemisphere in the 1970s, particularly towards the end of the decade. In contrast, the synoptic quality of the analysis for the northern hemisphere is sufficient to provide forecasts that remain skilful well into the medium range for all years. Two particular problems are also examined: excessive precipitation over tropical oceans and a too strong Brewer-Dobson circulation, both of which are pronounced in later years. Several other aspects of the quality of the re-analyses revealed by monitoring and validation studies are summarized. Expectations that the 'second-generation' ERA-40 re-analysis would provide products that are better than those from the firstgeneration ERA-15 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses are found to have been met in most cases.
Abstract. Tentative estimates, using three-dimensional chemistry and transport models, have suggested small ozone increases in the upper troposphere resulting from current aircraft emissions, but have also concluded to significant deficiencies in today's models and to the need to improve them through comparison with extended data sets. The Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In-Service Aircraft (MOZAIC) program was initiated in 1993 by European scientists, aircraft manufacturers, and airlines to collect experimental data. Its goal is to help understand the atmosphere and how it is changing under the influence of human activity, with particular interest in the effects of aircraft. MOZAIC consists of automatic and regular measurements of ozone and water vapor by five long range passenger airliners flying all over the world. The aim is not to detect direct effects of aircraft emissions on the ozone budget inside the air traffic corridors but to build a large database of measurements to allow studies of chemical and physical processes in the atmosphere, and hence to validate global chemistry transport models. MOZAIC data provide, in particular, detailed ozone and water vapor climatologies at 9-12 km where subsonic aircraft emit most of their exhaust and which is a very critical domain (e.g., radiatively and stratosphere/troposphere exchanges) still imperfectly described in existing models. This will be valuable to improve knowledge about the processes occuring in the upper troposphere and the lowermost stratosphere, and the model treatment of near tropopause chemistry and transport. During MOZAIC I (January 1993-September 1996), fully automatic devices were developed,
A three‐dimensional chemistry‐transport model of the stratosphere is used to simulate the evolution of trace constituents during the 1991–1992 Arctic winter. It is shown that heterogeneous reactions on polar stratospheric clouds led in early January to almost complete activation of atmospheric chlorine inside the polar vortex, in remarkable coincidence with observations by the ER‐2 aircraft (Toohey et al., 1993) and the microwave limb sounder on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (Waters et al., 1993). Sulfate aerosols resulting from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo also produced a significant increase in chlorine monoxide (ClO) concentrations at middle and high latitudes. The net chemical destruction of ozone found in the vortex at the end of the simulation (25% at 50 hPa and 25 DU), although substantial, was limited by available sunlight and the short period during which stratospheric clouds occurred.
To investigate the effects of the middle atmosphere on climate, the World Climate Research Programme is supporting the project "Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate" (SPARC). A central theme of SPARC, to examine model simulations of the coupled troposphere-middle atmosphere system, is being performed through the initiative called GRIPS (GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC). In this paper, an overview of the objectives of GRIPS is given. Initial activities include an assessment of the performance of middle atmosphere climate models, and preliminary results from this evaluation are presented here. It is shown that although all 13 models evaluated represent most major features of the mean atmospheric state, there are deficiencies in the magnitude and location of the features, which cannot easily be traced to the formulation (resolution or the parameterizations included) of the models. Most models show a cold bias in all locations, apart from the tropical tropopause region where they can be either too warm or too cold. The strengths and locations of the major jets are often misrepresented in the models. Looking at three-dimensional fields reveals, for some models, more severe deficiencies in the magnitude and positioning of the dominant structures (such as the Aleutian high in the stratosphere), although undersampling might explain some of these differences from observations. All the models have shortcomings in their simulations of the present-day climate, which might limit the accuracy of predictions of the climate response to ozone change and other anomalous forcing.
Abstract. The MOZAIC programme collects ozone and water vapour data using automatic equipment installed on board five long-range Airbus A340 aircraft flying regularly all over the world since August 1994. Those measurements made between September 1994 and August 1996 allowed the first accurate ozone climatology at 9-12 km altitude to be generated. The seasonal variability of the tropopause height has always provided a problem when constructing climatologies in this region. To remove any signal from the seasonal and synoptic scale variability in tropopause height we have chosen in this further study of these and subsequent data to reference our climatology to the altitude of the tropopause. We define the tropopause as a mixing zone 30 hPa thick across the 2 pvu potential vorticity surface. A new ozone climatology is now available for levels characteristic of the upper troposphere (UT) and the lower stratosphere (LS) regardless of the seasonal variations of the tropopause over the period [1994][1995][1996][1997][1998][1999][2000][2001][2002][2003]. Moreover, this new presentation has allowed an estimation of the monthly mean climatological ozone concentration at the tropopause showing a sine seasonal variation with a maximum in May (120 ppbv) and a minimum in November (65 ppbv). Besides, we present a first assessment of the inter-annual variability of ozone in this particular critical region. The overall increase in the UTLS is about 1%/yr for the 9 years sampled. However, enhanced concentrations about 10-15 % higher than the other years were recorded in 1998 and 1999 in both the UT and the LS. This so-called "1998-1999 anomaly" may be attributed to a combination of different processes involving large scale modes of atmospheric variability, circulation features and local or global pollution, but the most dominant one seems to involve the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as we find a strong positive correlation (above 0.60) between ozone recorded in the upper troposphere and the NAO index. A strong antiCorrespondence to: V. Thouret (thov@aero.obs-mip.fr) correlation is also found between ozone and the extremes of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) index, attributing the lower stratospheric variability to dynamical anomalies. Finally this analysis highlights the coupling between the troposphere, at least the upper one, and the stratosphere, at least the lower one.
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