RNA-Puzzles is a collective endeavor dedicated to the advancement and improvement of RNA 3D structure prediction. With agreement from crystallographers, the RNA structures are predicted by various groups before the publication of the crystal structures. We now report the prediction of 3D structures for six RNA sequences: four nucleolytic ribozymes and two riboswitches. Systematic protocols for comparing models and crystal structures are described and analyzed. In these six puzzles, we discuss (i) the comparison between the automated web servers and human experts; (ii) the prediction of coaxial stacking; (iii) the prediction of structural details and ligand binding; (iv) the development of novel prediction methods; and (v) the potential improvements to be made. We show that correct prediction of coaxial stacking and tertiary contacts is essential for the prediction of RNA architecture, while ligand binding modes can only be predicted with low resolution and simultaneous prediction of RNA structure with accurate ligand binding still remains out of reach. All the predicted models are available for the future development of force field parameters and the improvement of comparison and assessment tools.

The SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein needs to be in an open-state conformation to interact with ACE2 to initiate viral entry. We utilise coarse-grained normal mode analysis to model the dynamics of Spike and calculate transition probabilities between states for 17081 variants including experimentally observed variants. Our results correctly model an increase in open-state occupancy for the more infectious D614G via an increase in flexibility of the closed-state and decrease of flexibility of the open-state. We predict the same effect for several mutations on glycine residues (404, 416, 504, 252) as well as residues K417, D467 and N501, including the N501Y mutation recently observed within the B.1.1.7, 501.V2 and P1 strains. This is, to our knowledge, the first use of normal mode analysis to model conformational state transitions and the effect of mutations on such transitions. The specific mutations of Spike identified here may guide future studies to increase our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 infection mechanisms and guide public health in their surveillance efforts.

The SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein needs to be in an open-state conformation to interact with ACE2 as part of the viral entry mechanism. We utilise coarse-grained normal-mode analyses to model the dynamics of Spike and calculate transition probabilities between states for 17081 Spike variants. Our results correctly model an increase in open-state occupancy for the more infectious D614G via an increase in flexibility of the closed-state and decrease of flexibility of the open-state. We predict the same effect for several mutations on Glycine residues (404, 416, 504, 252) as well as residues K417, D467 and N501, including the N501Y mutation, explaining the higher infectivity of the B.1.1.7 and 501.V2 strains. This is, to our knowledge, the first use of normal-mode analysis to model conformational state transitions and the effect of mutations thereon. The specific mutations of Spike identified here may guide future studies to increase our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 infection mechanisms and guide public health in their surveillance efforts.