The study aimed to identify predictors of overall 30-day mortality in cancer patients with pulmonary embolism including suspected pulmonary embolism (SPE) and unsuspected pulmonary embolism (UPE) events. Secondary outcomes included 30- and 90-day major bleeding and venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence.The study cohort included 1033 consecutive patients with pulmonary embolism from the multicentre observational ambispective EPIPHANY study (March 2006-October 2014). A subgroup of 497 patients prospectively assessed for the study were subclassified into three work-up scenarios (SPE, truly asymptomatic UPE and UPE with symptoms) to assess outcomes.The overall 30-day mortality rate was 14%. The following variables were associated with the overall 30-day mortality on multivariate analysis: VTE history, upper gastrointestinal cancers, metastatic disease, cancer progression, performance status, arterial hypotension <100 mmHg, heart rate >110 beats·min, basal oxygen saturation <90% and SPE (versus overall UPE).The overall 30-day mortality was significantly lower in patients with truly asymptomatic UPE events (3%) compared with those with UPE-S (20%) and SPE (21%) (p<0.0001). Thirty- and 90-day VTE recurrence and major bleeding rates were similar in all the groups.In conclusion, variables associated with the severity of cancer and pulmonary embolism were associated with short-term mortality. Our findings may help to develop pulmonary embolism risk-assessment models in this setting.
Introduction
Some local protocols suggest using intermediate or therapeutic doses of anticoagulants for thromboprophylaxis in hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19). However, the incidence of bleeding, predictors of major bleeding, or the association between bleeding and mortality remain largely unknown.
Methods
We performed a cohort study of patients hospitalized for COVID‐19 that received intermediate or therapeutic doses of anticoagulants from March 25 to July 22, 2020, to identify those at increased risk for major bleeding. We used bivariate and multivariable logistic regression to explore the risk factors associated with major bleeding.
Results
During the study period, 1965 patients were enrolled. Of them, 1347 (69%) received intermediate‐ and 618 (31%) therapeutic‐dose anticoagulation, with a median duration of 12 days in both groups. During the hospital stay, 112 patients (5.7%) developed major bleeding and 132 (6.7%) had non‐major bleeding. The 30‐day all‐cause mortality rate for major bleeding was 45% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 36%‐54%) and for non‐major bleeding 32% (95% CI: 24%‐40%). Multivariable analysis showed increased risk for in‐hospital major bleeding associated with D‐dimer levels >10 times the upper normal range (hazard ratio [HR], 2.23; 95% CI, 1.38–3.59), ferritin levels >500 ng/ml (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.02–3.95), critical illness (HR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.14–3.18), and therapeutic‐intensity anticoagulation (HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.01–1.97).
Conclusions
Among patients hospitalized with COVID‐19 receiving intermediate‐ or therapeutic‐intensity anticoagulation, a major bleeding event occurred in 5.7%. Use of therapeutic‐intensity anticoagulation, critical illness, and elevated D‐dimer or ferritin levels at admission were associated with increased risk for major bleeding.
Significant differences in the clinical profile of venous thromboembolic-related outcomes were observed according to the site of cancer. These findings suggest the development of cancer-specific anticoagulant strategies as an area for further research.
Background:Our objective was to develop a prognostic stratification tool that enables patients with cancer and pulmonary embolism (PE), whether incidental or symptomatic, to be classified according to the risk of serious complications within 15 days.Methods:The sample comprised cases from a national registry of pulmonary thromboembolism in patients with cancer (1075 patients from 14 Spanish centres). Diagnosis was incidental in 53.5% of the events in this registry. The Exhaustive CHAID analysis was applied with 10-fold cross-validation to predict development of serious complications following PE diagnosis.Results:About 208 patients (19.3%, 95% confidence interval (CI), 17.1–21.8%) developed a serious complication after PE diagnosis. The 15-day mortality rate was 10.1%, (95% CI, 8.4–12.1%). The decision tree detected six explanatory covariates: Hestia-like clinical decision rule (any risk criterion present vs none), Eastern Cooperative Group performance scale (ECOG-PS; <2 vs ⩾2), O2 saturation (<90 vs ⩾90%), presence of PE-specific symptoms, tumour response (progression, unknown, or not evaluated vs others), and primary tumour resection. Three risk classes were created (low, intermediate, and high risk). The risk of serious complications within 15 days increases according to the group: 1.6, 9.4, 30.6% P<0.0001. Fifteen-day mortality rates also rise progressively in low-, intermediate-, and high-risk patients: 0.3, 6.1, and 17.1% P<0.0001. The cross-validated risk estimate is 0.191 (s.e.=0.012). The optimism-corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is 0.779 (95% CI, 0.717–0.840).Conclusions:We have developed and internally validated a prognostic index to predict serious complications with the potential to impact decision-making in patients with cancer and PE.
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