Abstract. The Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas (COSYNA) was established in order to better understand the complex interdisciplinary processes of northern seas and the arctic coasts in a changing environment. Particular focus is given to the German Bight in the North Sea as a prime example for a heavily used coastal area, and Svalbard as an example of an arctic coast that is under strong pressure due to global change. The automated observing and modelling system COSYNA is designed to monitor real time conditions, provide short-term forecasts and data products, and to assess the impact of anthropogenically induced change. Observations are carried out combining satellite and radar remote sensing with various in situ platforms. Novel sensors, instruments, and algorithms are developed to further improve the understanding of the interdisciplinary interactions between physics, biogeochemistry, and the ecology of coastal seas. New modelling and data assimilation techniques are used to integrate observations and models in a quasi-operational system providing descriptions and forecasts of key hydrographic variables. Data and data products are publically available free of charge and in real time. They are used by multiple interest groups in science, agencies, politics, industry, and the public.
Abstract. The Coastal Observing System for Northern and Arctic Seas (COSYNA) was established in order to better understand the complex interdisciplinary processes of northern seas and the Arctic coasts in a changing environment. Particular focus is given to the German Bight in the North Sea as a prime example of a heavily used coastal area, and Svalbard as an example of an Arctic coast that is under strong pressure due to global change.The COSYNA automated observing and modelling system is designed to monitor real-time conditions and provide short-term forecasts, data, and data products to help assess the impact of anthropogenically induced change. Observations are carried out by combining satellite and radar remote sensing with various in situ platforms. Novel sensors, instruments, and algorithms are developed to further improve the understanding of the interdisciplinary interactions between physics, biogeochemistry, and the ecology of coastal seas. New modelling and data assimilation techniques are used to integrate observations and models in a quasi-operational system providing descriptions and forecasts of key hydrographic variables.
Coastal floodplains are complex regions that form the interface between human, physical and natural systems. This paper describes the development, application and evaluation of a conceptual foundation for quantitative integrated floodplain risk assessments using the recently-developed SPR systems model. The SPR systems model is a conceptual model that combines the well-established Source-Pathway-Receptor (SPR) approach with the concept of system diagrams. In comparison to the conventional approach, the systems model provides spatially explicit quasi-2D descriptions of the floodplain in terms of constituent elements and possible element linkages. The quasi-2D SPR, as it will henceforth be referred to in this paper, is not the final product of this work, but is an important intermediate stage which has been pursued as part of a wider European flood risk project THESEUS (www.theseusproject.eu). Further research is currently ongoing to provide full quantification of the quasi-2D SPR, and to add further refinements such that hydraulic assessments could follow on easily and rapidly from the results of these appraisals. The first part of the paper synthesises current conceptual treatment of coastal floodplains and identifies areas for improvement in describing coastal floodplains as complex systems. The synthesis demonstrates that the conceptual foundation of a 'typical' flood risk study often achieves a less comprehensive and integrated description of the floodplain than the quantitative models which it informs. From this synthesis, the quasi-2D SPR is identified as a more robust and informative conceptual foundation for an integrated risk assessment. The quasi-2D SPR has been applied to seven European coastal floodplains as part of the THESEUS project. The second part of the paper discusses in detail the application of the quasi-2D SPR to three contrasting floodplain systemsan estuary, a coastal peninsula and a mixed open coast/estuary site. The quasi-2D SPR provides a consistent approach for achieving comprehensive floodplain descriptions that are individual to each coastal floodplain. These are obtained through a robust, participatory model-building exercise, that facilitates developing a shared understanding of the system. The constructed model is a powerful tool for structuring and integrating existing knowledge across multiple disciplines. Applications of the quasi-2D SPR provide key insights into the characteristics of complex coastal floodplainsinsights that will inform the quantification process. Finally, the paper briefly describes the ongoing quantitative extension to the quasi-2D SPR.
Climate change with rising sea levels and possible changes in surge levels and wave climate will have a large impact on how we protect our coastal areas and cities. Here the focus is on estuarine locations not only affected by tide and surge propagation, but also potentially influenced by freshwater discharge. Mitigation measures might be diverse ranging from pure hard 'engineering' solutions all the way to significant realignment. The variation in the type/origin and extent of the flood sources greatly influences subsequent risk management measures. At the same time, society is increasingly demanding that we take a holistic view on risk management, embracing and balancing safety, ecological and socioeconomic aspects. This requires that all these diverse factors need to be considered together and integrated. In this context, the Source-Pathway-Receptor (SPR) approach offers a powerful holistic tool to investigate changing risk connected to extreme events. The traditional SPR approach with a consecutive treatment of the flood, pathway and receptor is well understood and is widely used in coastal flood risk analysis. Here an enhanced 2D conceptual version of the SPR method is used to better describe the system and to allow flexibility in considering multiple scales, flood sources and pathways. The new approach is demonstrated by three estuarine case studies in western Europe: the Gironde estuary, France; the Dendermonde region in the Scheldt estuary, Belgium; and HafenCity (Hamburg) in the Elbe estuary, Germany. They differ considerably in the surface area considered, in the type of flood sources, and hence also in the SPR configuration. After a brief introduction of the typical characteristics of the three study sites including some lessons learned from past flood protection measures, the differences in application and results of the SPR approach are discussed. Emphasis is on the specific aspects for each study site, but embedded in a generic SPR framework. The resulting generic lessons learned about the flood sources and how this shapes subsequent analysis are transferable to numerous important estuaries worldwide.
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