Antibody levels predict vaccine efficacy Symptomatic COVID-19 infection can be prevented by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines. A “correlate of protection” is a molecular biomarker to measure how much immunity is needed to fight infection and is key for successful global immunization programs. Gilbert et al . determined that antibodies are the correlate of protection in vaccinated individuals enrolled in the Moderna COVE phase 3 clinical trial (see the Perspective by Openshaw). By measuring binding and neutralizing antibodies against the viral spike protein, the authors found that the levels of both antibodies correlated with the degree of vaccine efficacy. The higher the antibody level, the greater the protection afforded by the messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine. Antibody levels that predict mRNA vaccine efficacy can therefore be used to guide vaccine regimen modifications and support regulatory approvals for a broader spectrum of the population. —PNK

Background: In the Coronavirus Efficacy (COVE) trial, estimated mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) was 94%. SARS-CoV-2 antibody measurements were assessed as correlates of COVID-19 risk and as correlates of protection. Methods: Through case-cohort sampling, participants were selected for measurement of four serum antibody markers at Day 1 (first dose), Day 29 (second dose), and Day 57: IgG binding antibodies (bAbs) to Spike, bAbs to Spike receptor-binding domain (RBD), and 50% and 80% inhibitory dilution pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titers calibrated to the WHO International Standard (cID50 and cID80). Participants with no evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were included. Cox regression assessed in vaccine recipients the association of each Day 29 or 57 serologic marker with COVID-19 through 126 or 100 days of follow-up, respectively, adjusting for risk factors. Results: Day 57 Spike IgG, RBD IgG, cID50, and cID80 neutralization levels were each inversely correlated with risk of COVID-19: hazard ratios 0.66 (95% CI 0.50, 0.88; p=0.005); 0.57 (0.40, 0.82; p=0.002); 0.41 (0.26, 0.65; p<0.001); 0.35 (0.20, 0.60; p<0.001) per 10-fold increase in marker level, respectively, multiplicity adjusted P-values 0.003-0.010. Results were similar for Day 29 markers (multiplicity adjusted P-values <0.001-0.003). For vaccine recipients with Day 57 reciprocal cID50 neutralization titers that were undetectable (<2.42), 100, or 1000, respectively, cumulative incidence of COVID-19 through 100 days post Day 57 was 0.030 (0.010, 0.093), 0.0056 (0.0039, 0.0080), and 0.0023 (0.0013, 0.0036). For vaccine recipients at these titer levels, respectively, vaccine efficacy was 50.8% (-51.2, 83.0%), 90.7% (86.7, 93.6%), and 96.1% (94.0, 97.8%). Causal mediation analysis estimated that the proportion of vaccine efficacy mediated through Day 29 cID50 titer was 68.5% (58.5, 78.4%). Conclusions: Binding and neutralizing antibodies correlated with COVID-19 risk and vaccine efficacy and likely have utility in predicting mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy against COVID-19. Trial registration number: COVE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04470427

BACKGROUND A safe, effective vaccine is essential to end HIV. A canarypox/protein HIV vaccine regimen showed modest efficacy at reducing infection in Thailand. An analogous regimen using HIV-1 subtype C virus demonstrated potent humoral and cellular responses in a Phase 1/2a trial and triggered a Phase 2b/3 double-blinded trial to assess the safety and efficacy of this regimen in South Africa. METHODS We enrolled and randomized 5,404 healthy, HIV-uninfected 18-35-year olds at 14 sites to vaccine (2,704 participants) or placebo (2,700 participants) between 26 October 2016 and 21 June 2019. The vaccine regimen consisted of two ALVAC-HIV (vCP2438) (expressing HIV-1 subtype C env, clade B gp41 , gag and pro) immunizations at months 0 and 1, with booster immunizations of ALVAC-HIV plus bivalent subtype C gp120 protein/MF59 adjuvant at months 3, 6, 12 and 18. Efficacy was evaluated by HIV testing every 3 months. RESULTS In January 2020, pre-specified non-efficacy criteria were met at an interim analysis; further vaccinations were subsequently halted. The vaccines were safe and well-tolerated in the study population (median age 24, 70% female-sex-at-birth). Over the primary 24-month follow-up, there were 133 infections among placebo recipients and 138 among vaccinees (hazard ratio = 1.02; 95%CI, 0.81-1.30; P=0.84). Pre-specified subgroup analyses demonstrated no difference in efficacy by sex or when restricting to follow-up post-4 th vaccination, and no difference amongst female-sex-at-birth by age, BMI, prevalent STIs, behavioral risk score or region. CONCLUSIONS The ALVAC/gp120 regimen did not prevent HIV infection in South Africans despite prior evidence of immunogenicity. ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02968849)

Acute malnutrition accounts for an immense disease burden and is implicated as a key, underlying cause of child mortality in low resource settings. Child wasting, defined as weight-for-length more than 2 standard deviations below international standards, is a leading indicator to measure the Sustainable Development Goal target to end malnutrition by 2030. Prevailing methods to measure wasting rely on cross-sectional surveys that are unable to measure onset, recovery, and persistence - key features of wasting epidemiology that could inform preventive interventions and disease burden estimates. Here, we show through an analysis of 18 longitudinal cohorts that child wasting is a highly dynamic process of incident onset and recovery, and that peak incidence is between birth and 3 months - far earlier than peak prevalence at 12-15 months. By age 24 months the proportion of children who had ever experienced a wasting episode (33%) was more than 5-fold higher than prevalence (6%), suggesting that the wasting burden is likely far higher than cross-sectional surveys suggest. Seasonally driven changes in population mean weight-for-length were large (>0.5 z in some cohorts) and were synchronous with rainfall across diverse settings, creating potential for seasonally targeted interventions. Our results motivate a new focus on extending preventive interventions for child wasting to pregnant and lactating mothers, and for preventive and therapeutic interventions to include children below age 6 months in addition to current targets of ages 6-59 months.