ObjectiveTo investigate time trends in preterm birth in Europe by multiplicity, gestational age, and onset of delivery.DesignAnalysis of aggregate data from routine sources.SettingNineteen European countries.PopulationLive births in 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008.MethodsAnnual risk ratios of preterm birth in each country were estimated with year as a continuous variable for all births and by subgroup using log-binomial regression models.Main outcome measuresOverall preterm birth rate and rate by multiplicity, gestational age group, and spontaneous versus non-spontaneous (induced or prelabour caesarean section) onset of labour.ResultsPreterm birth rates rose in most countries, but the magnitude of these increases varied. Rises in the multiple birth rate as well as in the preterm birth rate for multiple births contributed to increases in the overall preterm birth rate. About half of countries experienced no change or decreases in the rates of singleton preterm birth. Where preterm birth rates rose, increases were no more prominent at 35–36 weeks of gestation than at 32–34 weeks of gestation. Variable trends were observed for spontaneous and non-spontaneous preterm births in the 13 countries with mode of onset data; increases were not solely attributed to non-spontaneous preterm births.ConclusionsThere was a wide variation in preterm birth trends in European countries. Many countries maintained or reduced rates of singleton preterm birth over the past 15 years, challenging a widespread belief that rising rates are the norm. Understanding these cross-country differences could inform strategies for the prevention of preterm birth.

The aim of this prospective study was (1) to identify significant and independent clinical risk factors (CRFs) for major osteoporotic (OP) fracture among peri-and early postmenopausal women, (2) to assess, in this population, the discriminatory capacity of FRAX and bone mineral density (BMD) for the identification of women at high risk of fracture, and (3) to assess whether adding risk factors to either FRAX or BMD would improve discriminatory capacity. The study population included 2651 peri-and early postmenopausal women [mean age (AE SD): 54 AE 4 years] with a mean follow-up period of 13.4 years (AE1.4 years). At baseline, a large set of CRFs was recorded, and vertebral BMD was measured (Lunar, DPX) in all women. Femoral neck BMD also was measured in 1399 women in addition to spine BMD. Women with current or past OP treatment for more than 3 months at baseline (n ¼ 454) were excluded from the analyses. Over the follow-up period, 415 women sustained a first low-energy fracture, including 145 major OP fractures (108 wrist, 44 spine, 20 proximal humerus, and 13 hip). In Cox multivariate regression models, only 3 CRFs were significant predictors of a major OP fracture independent of BMD and age: a personal history of fracture, three or more pregnancies, and current postmenopausal hormone therapy. In the subsample of women who had a hip BMD measurement and who were not receiving OP therapy (including hormone-replacement therapy) at baseline, mean FRAX value was 3.8% (AE2.4%). The overall discriminative value for fracture, as measured by the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), was equal to 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.69] and 0.66 (95% CI 0.60-0.73), respectively, for FRAX and hip BMD. Sensitivity of both tools was low (ie, around 50% for 30% of the women classified as the highest risk). Adding parity to the predictive model including FRAX or using a simple risk score based on the best predictive model in our population did not significantly improve the discriminatory capacity over BMD alone. Only a limited number of clinical risk factors were found associated with the risk of major OP fracture in peri-and early postmenopausal women. In this population, the FRAX tool, like other risk scores combining CRFs to either BMD or FRAX, had a poor sensitivity for fracture prediction and did not significantly improve the discriminatory value of hip BMD alone. ß