Lyme disease, the most prevalent vector-borne disease in North America, is increasing in incidence and geographic distribution as the tick vector,
Ixodes scapularis
, spreads to new regions. We re-construct the spatial-temporal invasion of the tick and human disease in the Midwestern US, a major focus of Lyme disease transmission, from 1967 to 2018, to analyse the influence of spatial factors on the geographic spread. A regression model indicates that three spatial factors—proximity to a previously invaded county, forest cover and adjacency to a river—collectively predict tick occurrence. Validation of the predictive capability of this model correctly predicts counties invaded or uninvaded with 90.6% and 98.5% accuracy, respectively. Reported incidence increases in counties after the first report of the tick; based on this modelled relationship, we identify 31 counties where we suspect
I. scapularis
already occurs yet remains undetected. Finally, we apply the model to forecast tick establishment by 2021 and predict 42 additional counties where
I. scapularis
will probably be detected based upon historical drivers of geographic spread. Our findings leverage resources dedicated to tick and human disease reporting and provide the opportunity to take proactive steps (e.g. educational efforts) to prevent and limit transmission in areas of future geographic spread.
a b s t r a c tIn solitary carnivores, scent marking is an important form of communication among individuals. We examined the extent of potential communication among ocelots (Leopardus pardalis) at communal latrine sites at the population level. We used a combination of camera-trapping and noninvasive genetics to monitor 18 ocelot latrines in an isolated population on Barro Colorado Island in the Republic of Panama. We found that 72% of monitored ocelot latrines were used by multiple individuals of both sexes, with a mean of 3.0 individuals (range 1-9) per year using each latrine. One highly used latrine was visited by 17 different individuals including 11 males and 6 females over the course of 6 years. Based on visits to the same latrine within 10 days of one another, potential for scent communication among individuals was high. Males had the potential to communicate with a mean of 5.9 other individuals (range 2-14), and females had the potential to communicate with a mean of 4.5 other individuals (range 3-12) at latrines. We conclude that communal latrines are important centers of scent communication for Leopardus pardalis.
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