COVID‐19 has impacted the world in many ways, including loss of lives, economic downturn and social isolation. COVID‐19 was emerged due to the SARS‐CoV‐2 that is highly infectious pandemic. Every country tried to control the COVID‐19 spread by imposing different types of lockdowns. Therefore, there is an urgent need to forecast the daily confirmed infected cases and deaths in different types of lockdown to select the most appropriate lockdown strategies to control the intensity of this pandemic and reduce the burden in hospitals. Currently are imposed three types of lockdown (partial, herd, complete) in different countries. In this study, three countries from every type of lockdown were studied by applying time‐series and machine learning models, named as random forests, K‐nearest neighbors, SVM, decision trees (DTs), polynomial regression, Holt winter, ARIMA, and SARIMA to forecast daily confirm infected cases and deaths due to COVID‐19. The models' accuracy and effectiveness were evaluated by error based on three performance criteria. Actually, a single forecasting model could not capture all data sets' trends due to the varying nature of data sets and lockdown types. Three top‐ranked models were used to predict the confirmed infected cases and deaths, the outperformed models were also adopted for the out‐of‐sample prediction and obtained very close results to the actual values of cumulative infected cases and deaths due to COVID‐19. This study has proposed the auspicious models for forecasting and the best lockdown strategy to mitigate the causalities of COVID‐19.
One of the most prominent statistical distributions is the Weibull distribution. The recent modifications in this distribution have enhanced its application but only in specific fields. To introduce a more generalized Weibull distribution, in this work beta exponentiated modified Weibull distribution is established. This distribution consolidate the exponential, skewed and symmetric shapes into one density. The proposed distribution also contains nineteen lifetime distributions as a special case, which shows the flexibility of the distribution. The statistical properties of the proposed model are derived and discussed, including reliability analysis and order statistics. The hazard function of the proposed distribution can have a unimodal, decreasing, bathtub, upside-down bathtub, and increasing shape that make it effective in reliability analysis. The parameters of the proposed model are evaluated by maximum likelihood and least squares estimation methods. The significance of the beta exponentiated modified Weibull distribution for modeling is illustrated by the study of real data. The numerical study indicates that the new proposed distribution gives better results than other comparable distributions.
In this article, we introduce an extended Dagum distribution, named as transmuted Dagum distribution which can be used for income distribution, actuarial, survival and reliability analysis. Main motivation for generalizing a standard distribution is to provide more flexible distribution to model a variety of data. The extended distribution has been expressed using quadratic rank transmutation map and its tractable properties like moments, moment generating, quantile, reliability and hazard functions are derived. The transmuted Dagum model provides the broader range of hazard behavior than the Dagum model. The densities of its order statistics, generalized TL-moments with its special cases are also studied. The parameters of the new model are estimated by maximum likelihood using Newton Raphson approach and the information matrix and confidence intervals are also obtained. To illustrate utility and potentiality of the proposed model, it has been applied to rainfall data for the city of Islamabad, Pakistan.
The primary aim of the study is to identify the existence of the post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in an individual and to detect the dominance level of each affected brain region in PTSD using rs-fMRI data. This will assist the psychiatrists and neurologists to distinguish impartially between PTSD individuals and healthy controls for the brain-based treatment of PTSD. Methods: Twenty-eight individuals (14 with PTSD, 14 healthy controls) were assessed to obtain rs-fMRI data of their six brain regions-of-interest. The rs-fMRI data analyzed by the Artificial Neural Network (ANN), adopting the training-validation-testing approach to classify PTSD and to identify the most affected brain region due to PTSD. The classification accuracy is justified by a variety of different methods and metrics. Results: Three ANN models were established to attain the study's purpose using the susceptible regions in the right, left, and both hemispheres, and the classification accuracy of ANN models achieved 79%, 93.5%, and 94.5%, respectively. The prediction accuracy even increased in the independent holdout sample using trained models. The developed models are reliable, intellectually attractive and generalize. Additionally, the most dominant region in the PTSD individuals was the left hippocampus and the least was the right hippocampus. Conclusion:The present investigation achieved high classification accuracy and identified the brain regions those contributed most to differentiating PTSD individuals from healthy controls. The results indicated that the left hippocampus is the most affected brain region in PTSD individuals. Therefore, our findings are helpful for practitioners for diagnostic, medication, and therapy of the affected brain regions by knowing the strength of infected regions.
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