Urban sustainable development has attracted widespread attention worldwide as it is closely linked with human survival. However, the growth of urban areas is frequently disproportionate in relation to population growth in developing countries; this discrepancy cannot be monitored solely using statistics. In this study, we integrated earth observation (EO) and statistical data monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 11.3.1: “The ratio of land consumption rate to the population growth rate (LCRPGR)”. Using the EO data (including China’s Land-Use/Cover Datasets (CLUDs) and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Linescan System (DMSP/OLS) nighttime light data) and census, we extracted the percentage of built-up area, disaggregated the population using the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, and depicted the spatial heterogeneity and dynamic tendency of urban expansion and population growth by a 1 km × 1 km grid at city and national levels in mainland China from 1990 to 2010. Then, the built-up area and population density datasets were compared with other products and statistics using the relative error and standard deviation in our research area. Major findings are as follows: (1) more than 95% of cities experienced growth in urban built-up areas, especially in the megacities with populations of 5–10 million; (2) the number of grids with a declined proportion of the population ranged from 47% in 1990–2000 to 54% in 2000–2010; (3) China’s LCRPGR value increased from 1.69 in 1990–2000 to 1.78 in 2000–2010, and the land consumption rate was 1.8 times higher than the population growth rate from 1990 to 2010; and (4) the number of cities experiencing uncoordinated development (i.e., where urban expansion is not synchronized with population growth) increased from 93 (27%) in 1990–2000 to 186 (54%) in 2000–2010. Using EO has the potential for monitoring the official SDGs on large and fine scales; the processes provide an example of the localization of SDG 11.3.1 in China.
Understanding the spatial distribution of populations at a finer spatial scale has important value for many applications, such as disaster risk rescue operations, business decision-making, and regional planning. In this study, a random forest (RF)-based population density mapping method was proposed in order to generate high-precision population density data with a 100 m × 100 m grid in mainland China in 2015 (hereafter referred to as ‘Popi’). Besides the commonly used elevation, slope, Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI), land use/land cover, roads, and National Polar Orbiting Partnership/Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (NPP/VIIRS), 16,101,762 records of points of interest (POIs) and 2867 county-level censuses were used in order to develop the model. Furthermore, 28,505 township-level censuses (74% of the total number of townships) were collected in order to evaluate the accuracy of the Popi product. The results showed that the utilization of multi-source data (especially the combination of POIs and NPP/VIIRS data) can effectively improve the accuracy of population mapping at a finer scale. The feature importances of the POIs and NPP/VIIRS are 0.49 and 0.14, respectively, which are higher values than those obtained for other natural factors. Compared with the Worldpop population dataset, the Popi data exhibited a higher accuracy. The number of accurately-estimated townships was 19,300 (67.7%) in the Popi product and 16,237 (56.9%) in the Worldpop product. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) were 14839 and 7218, respectively, for Popi, and 18014 and 8572, respectively, for Worldpop. The research method in this paper could provide a reference for the spatialization of other socioeconomic data (such as GDP).
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