In patients with atrial fibrillation, apixaban was superior to warfarin in preventing stroke or systemic embolism, caused less bleeding, and resulted in lower mortality. (Funded by Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pfizer; ARISTOTLE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00412984.).

In patients with AF, renal impairment was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events and bleeding. When compared with warfarin, apixaban treatment reduced the rate of stroke, death, and major bleeding, regardless of renal function. Patients with impaired renal function seemed to have the greatest reduction in major bleeding with apixaban.

AimsAtrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke, which is currently estimated by clinical characteristics. The cardiac biomarkers N-terminal fragment B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and cardiac troponin high-sensitivity (cTn-hs) are independently associated with risk of stroke in AF. Our objective was to develop and validate a new biomarker-based risk score to improve prognostication of stroke in patients with AF.Methods and results A new risk score was developed and internally validated in 14 701 patients with AF and biomarkers levels determined at baseline, median follow-up of 1.9 years. Biomarkers and clinical variables significantly contributing to predicting stroke or systemic embolism were assessed by Cox-regression and each variable obtained a weight proportional to the model coefficients. External validation was performed in 1400 patients with AF, median follow-up of 3.4 years. The most important predictors were prior stroke/transient ischaemic attack, NT-proBNP, cTn-hs, and age, which were included in the ABC ( A ge, B iomarkers, C linical history) stroke risk score. The ABC-stroke score was well calibrated and yielded higher c-indices than the widely used CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score in both the derivation cohort (0.68 vs. 0.62, P < 0.001) and the external validation cohort (0.66 vs. 0.58, P < 0.001). Moreover, the ABC-stroke score consistently provided higher c-indices in several important subgroups. ConclusionA novel biomarker-based risk score for predicting stroke in AF was successfully developed and internally validated in a large cohort of patients with AF and further externally validated in an independent AF cohort. The ABC-stroke score performed better than the presently used clinically based risk score and may provide improved decision support in AF.ClinicalTrials. gov identifierNCT00412984, NCT00799903.

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AimsThe risk of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) increases with age. In the ARISTOTLE trial, apixaban when compared with warfarin reduced the rate of stroke, death, and bleeding. We evaluated these outcomes in relation to patient age.Methods and resultsA total of 18 201 patients with AF and a raised risk of stroke were randomized to warfarin or apixaban 5 mg b.d. with dose reduction to 2.5 mg b.d. or placebo in 831 patients with ≥2 of the following criteria: age ≥80 years, body weight ≤60 kg, or creatinine ≥133 μmol/L. We used Cox models to compare outcomes in relation to patient age during 1.8 years median follow-up. Of the trial population, 30% were <65 years, 39% were 65 to <75, and 31% were ≥75 years. The rates of stroke, all-cause death, and major bleeding were higher in the older age groups (P < 0.001 for all). Apixaban was more effective than warfarin in preventing stroke and reducing mortality across all age groups, and associated with less major bleeding, less total bleeding, and less intracranial haemorrhage regardless of age (P interaction >0.11 for all). Results were also consistent for the 13% of patients ≥80 years. No significant interaction with apixaban dose was found with respect to treatment effect on major outcomes.ConclusionThe benefits of apixaban vs. warfarin were consistent in patients with AF regardless of age. Owing to the higher risk at older age, the absolute benefits of apixaban were greater in the elderly.