Acquired mutations are pervasive across normal tissues. However, our understanding of the processes that drive transformation of certain clones to cancer is limited. Here we study this phenomenon in the context of clonal hematopoiesis (CH) and the development of therapy-related myeloid neoplasms (tMN). We find mutations are selected differentially based on exposures. Mutations in ASXL1 are enriched in current or former smokers, whereas cancer therapy with radiation, platinum and topoisomerase II inhibitors preferentially selects for mutations in DNA damage response (DDR) genes ( TP53, PPM1D, CHEK2 ). Sequential sampling provides definitive evidence that DDR clones outcompete other clones when exposed to certain therapies. Among cases where CH was previously detected, the CH mutation was present at tMN diagnosis. We identify the molecular characteristics of CH that increase risk of tMN. The increasing implementation of clinical sequencing at diagnosis provides an opportunity to identify patients at risk of tMN for prevention strategies.

Tumor protein p53 (TP53) is the most frequently mutated gene in cancer 1,2. In patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), TP53 mutations are associated with high-risk disease 3,4 , rapid transformation to acute myeloid leukemia (AML) 5 , resistance to conventional therapies 6-8 and dismal outcomes 9. Consistent with the tumor-suppressive role of TP53, patients harbor both mono-and biallelic mutations 10. However, the biological and clinical implications of TP53 allelic state have not been fully investigated in MDS or any other cancer type. We analyzed 3,324 patients with MDS for TP53 mutations and allelic imbalances and delineated two subsets of patients with distinct phenotypes and outcomes. One-third of TP53-mutated patients had monoallelic mutations whereas two-thirds had multiple hits (multi-hit) consistent with biallelic targeting. Established associations with complex karyotype, few co-occurring mutations, high-risk presentation and poor outcomes were specific to multi-hit patients only. TP53 multi-hit state predicted risk of death and leukemic transformation independently of the Revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) 11. Surprisingly, monoallelic patients did not differ from TP53 wild-type patients in outcomes and response to therapy. This study shows that consideration of TP53 allelic state is critical for diagnostic and prognostic precision in MDS as well as in future correlative studies of treatment response. In collaboration with the International Working Group for Prognosis in MDS (Supplementary Table 1), we assembled a cohort of 3,324 peridiagnostic and treatment-naive patients with MDS or closely related myeloid neoplasms (Extended Data Fig. 1 and Supplementary Fig. 1). Genetic profiling included conventional G-banding analyses (CBA) and tumor-only, capture-based, next-generation sequencing (NGS) of a panel of genes recurrently mutated in MDS, as well as genome-wide copy number probes. Allele-specific copy number profiles were generated from NGS data using the CNACS algorithm 7 (see Methods and Code availability). An additional 1,120 samples derived from the Japanese MDS consortium (Extended Data Fig. 2) were used as a validation cohort. To study the effect of TP53 allelic state on genome stability, clinical presentation, outcome and response to therapy, we performed a detailed characterization of alterations at the TP53 locus. First, we assessed genome-wide allelic imbalances in the cohort of 3,324 patients, to include arm-level or focal (~3 Mb) ploidy alterations and regions of copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity (cnLOH) (Extended Data Fig. 3, Supplementary Figs. 2-4 and Methods).

Clinical recommendations for Acute Myeloid Leukemia (AML) classification and risk-stratification remain heavily reliant on cytogenetic findings at diagnosis, which are present in <50% of patients. Using comprehensive molecular profiling data from 3,653 patients we characterize and validate 16 molecular classes describing 100% of AML patients. Each class represents diverse biological AML subgroups, and is associated with distinct clinical presentation, likelihood of response to induction chemotherapy, risk of relapse and death over time. Secondary AML-2, emerges as the second largest class (24%), associates with high-risk disease, poor prognosis irrespective of flow Minimal Residual Disease (MRD) negativity, and derives significant benefit from transplantation. Guided by class membership we derive a 3-tier risk-stratification score that re-stratifies 26% of patients as compared to standard of care. This results in a unified framework for disease classification and risk-stratification in AML that relies on information from cytogenetics and 32 genes. Last, we develop an open-access patient-tailored clinical decision support tool.

Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) is frequent in cancer patients and associated with increased risk of therapy related myeloid neoplasms (tMN). To define the relationship between CH, oncologic 90 therapy, and tMN progression, we studied 24,439 cancer patients. We show that previously treated patients have increased rates of CH, with enrichment of mutations in DNA Damage Response (DDR) genes (TP53, PPM1D, CHEK2). Exposure to radiation, platinum and topoisomerase II inhibitors have the strongest association with CH with evidence of dose-dependence and genetreatment interactions. We validate these associations in serial sampling from 525 patients and 95show that exposure to cytotoxic and radiation therapy imparts a selective advantage specifically in hematopoietic cells with DDR mutations. In patients who progressed to tMN, the clone at CH demarcated the dominant clone at tMN diagnosis. CH mutational features predict risk of therapyrelated myeloid neoplasm in solid tumor patients with clinical implications for early detection and treatment decisions. 100

The goal of therapy for essential thrombocythemia (ET) and polycythemia vera (PV) patients is to reduce thrombotic events by normalizing blood counts. Hydroxyurea (HU) and interferon-α (IFN-α) are the most frequently used cytoreductive options for ET and PV patients at high-risk for vascular complications. Myeloproliferative Disorders Research Consortium 112 was an investigator-initiated, phase 3 trial comparing HU to pegylated IFN-α (PEG) in treatment naïve, high-risk ET/PV patients. The primary endpoint was complete response (CR) rate at 12 months. A total of 168 patients were treated for a median of 81.0 weeks. CR for HU was 37% and 35% for PEG (p=0.80) at 12 months. At 24/36 months, CR was 20%/17% for HU and 29%/33% for PEG. PEG led to a greater reduction in JAK2V617F at 24 months, but histopathologic responses were more frequent with HU. Thrombotic events and disease progression were infrequent in both arms, while grade 3/4 adverse events were more frequent with PEG (46% vs. 28%). At 12 months of treatment there was no significant difference in CR rates between HU and PEG. This study indicates that PEG and HU are both effective treatments for PV and ET. With longer treatment PEG was more effective in normalizing blood counts and reducing driver mutation burden, while HU produced more histopathologic responses. Despite these differences, both agents did not differ in limiting thrombotic events and disease progression in high-risk ET/PV patients. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute, 5P01CA108671-09; clinicaltrials.gov number (NCT01259856)