We present a new Milky Way microlensing simulation code, dubbed PopSyCLE (Population Synthesis for Compact object Lensing Events). PopSyCLE is the first resolved microlensing simulation to include a compact object distribution derived from numerical supernovae explosion models and both astrometric and photometric microlensing effects. We demonstrate the capabilities of PopSyCLE by investigating the optimal way to find black holes (BHs) with microlensing. Candidate BHs have typically been selected from wide-field photometric microlensing surveys, such as OGLE, by selecting events with long Einstein crossing times (t E > 120 days). These events can be selected at closest approach and monitored astrometrically in order to constrain the mass of each lens; PopSyCLE predicts a BH detection rate of ∼40% for such a program. We find that the detection rate can be enhanced to ∼ 85% by selecting events with both t E > 120 days and a microlensing parallax of π E < 0.08. Unfortunately, such a selection criterion cannot be applied during the event as π E requires both pre-and post-peak photometry. However, historical microlensing events from photometric surveys can be revisited using this new selection criteria in order to statistically constrain the abundance of BHs in the Milky Way. The future WFIRST microlensing survey provides both precise photometry and astrometry and will yield individual masses of O(100 − 1000) black holes, which is at least an order of magnitude more than is possible with individual candidate follow-up with current facilities. The resulting sample of BH masses from WFIRST will begin to constrain the shape of the black hole present-day mass function, BH multiplicity, and BH kick velocity distributions.

The electromagnetic counterpart to the Galactic center supermassive black hole, Sgr A*, has been observed in the near-infrared for over 20 years and is known to be highly variable. We report new Keck Telescope observations showing that Sgr A* reached much brighter flux levels in 2019 than ever measured at near-infrared wavelengths. In the K band, Sgr A* reached flux levels of ∼ 6 mJy, twice the level of the previously observed peak flux from > 13, 000 measurements over 130 nights with the VLT and Keck Telescopes. We also observe a factor of 75 change in flux over a 2-hour time span with no obvious color changes between 1.6 µm and 2.1 µm. The distribution of flux variations observed this year is also significantly different than the historical distribution. Using the most comprehensive statistical model published, the probability of a single night exhibiting peak flux levels observed this year, given historical Keck observations, is less than 0.3%. The probability to observe the flux levels similar to all 4 nights of data in 2019 is less than 0.05%. This increase in brightness and variability may indicate a period of heightened activity from Sgr A* or a change in its accretion state. It may also indicate that the current model is not sufficient to model Sgr A* at high flux levels and should be updated. Potential physical origins of Sgr A*'s unprecedented brightness may be from changes in the accretion-flow as a result of the star S0-2's closest passage to the black hole in 2018 or from a delayed reaction to the approach of the dusty object G2 in 2014. Additional multi-wavelength observations will be necessary to both monitor Sgr A* for potential state changes and to constrain the physical processes responsible for its current variability.

As a young massive cluster in the Central Molecular Zone, the Arches cluster is a valuable probe of the stellar Initial Mass Function (IMF) in the extreme Galactic Center environment. We use multi-epoch Hubble Space Telescope observations to obtain high-precision proper motion and photometric measurements of the cluster, calculating cluster membership probabilities for stars down to ∼1.8 M between cluster radii of 0.25 pc -3.0 pc. We achieve a cluster sample with just ∼6% field contamination, a significant improvement over photometrically-selected samples which are severely compromised by the differential extinction across the field. Combining this sample with K-band spectroscopy of 5 cluster members, we forward model the Arches cluster to simultaneously constrain its IMF and other properties (such as age and total mass) while accounting for observational uncertainties, completeness, mass segregation, and stellar multiplicity. We find that the Arches IMF is best described by a 1-segment power law that is significantly top-heavy: α = 1.80 ± 0.05 (stat) ± 0.06 (sys), where dN/dm ∝ m −α , though we cannot discount a 2-segment power law model with a high-mass slope only slightly shallower than local star forming regions (α = 2.04 +0.14 −0.19 ± 0.04) but with a break at 5.8 +3.2 −1.2 ± 0.02 M . In either case, the Arches IMF is significantly different than the standard IMF. Comparing the Arches to other young massive clusters in the Milky Way, we find tentative evidence for a systematically top-heavy IMF at the Galactic Center.

We present a quantitative analysis of the low-resolution (∼4.5Å) spectra of 12 late-B and early-A blue supergiants (BSGs) in the metal-poor dwarf galaxy NGC 3109. A modified method of analysis is presented which does not require use of the Balmer jump as an independent T ef f indicator, as used in previous studies. We determine stellar effective temperatures, gravities, metallicities, reddening, and luminosities, and combine our sample with the early-B type BSGs analyzed by Evans et al. (2007) to derive the distance to NGC 3109 using the Flux-weighted Gravity-Luminosity Relation (FGLR). Using primarily Fe-group elements, we find an average metallicity of [Z] = -0.67 ± 0.13, and no evidence of a metallicity gradient in the galaxy. Our metallicities are higher than those found by Evans et al. (2007) based on the oxygen abundances of early-B supergiants ([Z] = −0.93 ± 0.07), suggesting a low α/Fe ratio for the galaxy. We adjust the position of NGC 3109 on the BSG-determined galaxy mass-metallicity relation accordingly and compare it to metallicity studies of HII regions in star-forming galaxies. We derive an FGLR distance modulus of 25.55 ± 0.09 (1.27 Mpc) that compares well with Cepheid and tip of the red giant branch (TRGB) distances. The FGLR itself is consistent with those found in other galaxies, demonstrating the reliability of this method as a measure of extragalactic distances.