BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) remains the most common complication after cardiac surgery. The present study aim was to derive an effective bedside tool to predict postoperative AF and its related complications.Methods and ResultsData of 17 262 patients undergoing adult cardiac surgery were retrieved at 3 European university hospitals. A risk score for postoperative AF (POAF score) was derived and validated. In the overall series, 4561 patients (26.4%) developed postoperative AF. In the derivation cohort age, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, emergency operation, preoperative intra‐aortic balloon pump, left ventricular ejection fraction <30%, estimated glomerular filtration rate <15 mL/min per m2 or dialysis, and any heart valve surgery were independent AF predictors. POAF score was calculated by summing weighting points for each independent AF predictor. According to the prediction model, the incidences of postoperative AF in the derivation cohort were 0, 11.1%; 1, 20.1%; 2, 28.7%; and ≥3, 40.9% (P<0.001), and in the validation cohort they were 0, 13.2%; 1, 19.5%; 2, 29.9%; and ≥3, 42.5% (P<0.001). Patients with a POAF score ≥3, compared with those without arrhythmia, revealed an increased risk of hospital mortality (5.5% versus 3.2%, P=0.001), death after the first postoperative day (5.1% versus 2.6%, P<0.001), cerebrovascular accident (7.8% versus 4.2%, P<0.001), acute kidney injury (15.1% versus 7.1%, P<0.001), renal replacement therapy (3.8% versus 1.4%, P<0.001), and length of hospital stay (mean 13.2 versus 10.2 days, P<0.001).ConclusionsThe POAF score is a simple, accurate bedside tool to predict postoperative AF and its related or accompanying complications.
Objective:To develop a risk score for deep sternal wound infection (DSWI) after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG).Design:Multicenter, prospective study.Setting:Tertiary-care referral hospitals.Participants:The study included 7,352 patients from the European multicenter coronary artery bypass grafting (E-CABG) registry.Intervention:Isolated CABG.Methods:An additive risk score (the E-CABG DSWI score) was estimated from the derivation data set (66.7% of patients), and its performance was assessed in the validation data set (33.3% of patients).Results:DSWI occurred in 181 (2.5%) patients and increased 1-year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.275; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.804–6.517). Female gender (odds ratio [OR], 1.804; 95% CI, 1.161–2.802), body mass index ≥30 kg/m2 (OR, 1.729; 95% CI, 1.166–2.562), glomerular filtration rate <45 mL/min/1.73 m2 (OR, 2.410; 95% CI, 1.413–4.111), diabetes (OR, 1.741; 95% CI, 1.178–2.573), pulmonary disease (OR, 1.935; 95% CI, 1.178–3.180), atrial fibrillation (OR, 1.854; 95% CI, 1.096–3.138), critical preoperative state (OR, 2.196; 95% CI, 1.209–3.891), and bilateral internal mammary artery grafting (OR, 2.088; 95% CI, 1.422–3.066) were predictors of DSWI (derivation data set). An additive risk score was calculated by assigning 1 point to each of these independent risk factors for DSWI. In the validation data set, the rate of DSWI increased along with the E-CABG DSWI scores (score of 0, 1.0%; score of 1, 1.8%; score of 2, 2.2%; score of 3, 6.9%; score ≥4: 12.1%; P < .0001). Net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination improvement, and decision curve analysis showed that the E-CABG DSWI score performed better than other risk scores.Conclusions:DSWI is associated with poor outcome after CABG, and its risk can be stratified using the E-CABG DSWI score.Trial registration:clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT02319083
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