SignificanceForecasts routinely provide critical information for dangerous weather events but not yet for epidemics. Researchers develop computational models that can be used for infectious disease forecasting, but forecasts have not been broadly compared or tested. We collaboratively compared forecasts from 16 teams for 8 y of dengue epidemics in Peru and Puerto Rico. The comparison highlighted components that forecasts did well (e.g., situational awareness late in the season) and those that need more work (e.g., early season forecasts). It also identified key facets to improve forecasts, including using multiple model ensemble approaches to improve overall forecast skill. Future infectious disease forecasting work can build on these findings and this framework to improve the skill and utility of forecasts.
The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)-Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11 • EUR-11 and 0.44 • EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empiricalstatistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe.
The seasonal dependence of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model surface temperature biases and sensitivity to planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes are jointly explored. For this purpose, the year 2001 was simulated using three different PBL schemes in a domain covering all Europe. The simulations were compared with gridded observations, upper-air data and high-frequency station data. Seasonal and daily cycles were analysed, aimed at providing a link between long-term biases and restricted case studies. The results show that the model mean bias significantly depends on the season, being warm in winter and cold in summer. The winter warm bias is related to misrepresented cold extremes, while a systematic cold bias dominates the whole temperature range in summer. Regarding PBL schemes, an overall underestimation of the entrainment is found, with the non-local Yonsei University scheme producing systematically warmer temperatures. It is shown that the opposite seasonal biases and systematic behaviour of the PBL schemes during the year lead to a different best-performing scheme in winter and summer. Moreover, the best-performing PBL scheme in an average sense is a result of the compensation of errors. The average summer results can be partially explained by a detailed case study. It is concluded that short-term studies should be used with caution to decide on the parametrizations to be used in long-term simulations.
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