OBJECTIVE
Our aim was to compare good candidates for trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC) who underwent repeat cesarean to those who chose TOLAC.
STUDY DESIGN
Data for all deliveries at 14 regional hospitals over an 8-year period were reviewed. Women with a primary cesarean and 1 subsequent delivery in the dataset were included. The choice of elective repeat cesarean vs TOLAC was assessed in the first delivery following the primary cesarean. Women with ≥70% chance of successful vaginal birth after cesarean as calculated by a published nomogram were considered good candidates for TOLAC. Good candidates who chose an elective repeat cesarean were compared to those who chose TOLAC. Women who were delivered at 2 preselected tertiary centers by a general obstetrician-gynecologist practice were subanalyzed to determine whether there was an effect of physician group.
RESULTS
In all, 5445 women had a primary cesarean and a subsequent delivery. A total of 3120 women were calculated to be good TOLAC candidates. Of this group, 925 (29.7%) chose TOLAC. Women managed by a family practitioner or who were obese were less likely to choose TOLAC while women who were managed by a midwife or had a prior vaginal delivery were more likely to choose TOLAC. At the 2 tertiary centers, 1 general obstetrician-gynecologist group had significantly more patients who chose TOLAC compared to the other obstetrician-gynecologist physician groups (P < .001), with 63% of their patients choosing TOLAC.
CONCLUSION
Less than one-third of the good candidates for TOLAC chose TOLAC. Managing provider influences this decision.
OBJECTIVE
To create a simple tool for predicting the likelihood of successful trial of labor after cesarean delivery (TOLAC) during the pregnancy after a primary cesarean delivery using variables available at the time of admission.
METHODS
Data for all deliveries at 14 regional hospitals over an 8-year period were reviewed. Women with one cesarean delivery and one subsequent delivery were included. Variables associated with successful VBAC were identified using multivariable logistic regression. Points were assigned to these characteristics, with weighting based on the coefficients in the regression model to calculate an integer VBAC score. The VBAC score was correlated with TOLAC success rate and was externally validated in an independent cohort using a logistic regression model.
RESULTS
A total of 5,445 women met inclusion criteria. Of those women, 1,170 (21.5%) underwent TOLAC. Of the women who underwent trial of labor, 938 (80%) had a successful VBAC. AVBAC score was generated based on the Bishop score (cervical examination) at the time of admission, with points added for history of vaginal birth, age younger than 35 years, absence of recurrent indication, and body mass index less than 30. Women with a VBAC score less than 10 had a likelihood of TOLAC success less than 50%. Women with a VBAC score more than 16 had a TOLAC success rate more than 85%. The model performed well in an independent cohort with an area under the curve of 0.80 (95% confidence interval 0.76–0.84).
CONCLUSIONS
Prediction of TOLAC success at the time of admission is highly dependent on the initial cervical examination. This simple VBAC score can be utilized when counseling women considering TOLAC.
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