This article shows that the effect of remittances on economic growth involves a U-shaped pattern, which is negative initially but later becomes positive. The analysis differs significantly from earlier studies in that it examines important methodological issues on the specification and estimation of the long-run growth effects of remittances by estimating their impact on total factor productivity (TFP) rather than on the growth rate of GDP, using time series data from Bangladesh. The use of single-equation cointegration methods shows that remittances' effect on long-run growth in Bangladesh is negative and falling until the remittances-to-GDP ratio is roughly eight per cent. The benefits of remittances receipts outweigh their costs and their net effects start to become positive when the ratio exceeds 14 per cent.
This study examines the impact of COVID-19 on the migrant workers and remittances flow to Bangladesh, the fastest growing South Asian country. Migrant workers have been playing an important role in propelling the economic activities of the country for a vast majority of the low-income population. Bangladesh is one of the major remittance recipient countries and earned US$21.8 billion in 2020. Over half a million workers from Bangladesh are employed in foreign countries annually, which eases the pressure on the domestic labour market considerably. However, the inflow of these enormous remittances has been encountered by various challenges including the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which has brought numerous adverse socio-economic impacts on the migrant workers. Policy recommendations suggest designing and implementing well-coordinated public–private migrant workers’ inclusive policies and creating a supportive environment for the returnee migrant workers to overcome this crisis. Initiating dialogues and negotiation with the employing countries to protect the jobs and workers’ rights can restore the employment and remittances during and after the pandemic, facilitate the expansion of the labour market across borders, and harness the valuable remittances for the overall welfare of the country.
Workers' remittance is one of the major sources of foreign exchange earnings for Bangladesh in recent years. It accounted for 12% of GDP in 2009 and has colossal socio-economic implications for the country. However, the inflows of foreign exchange earnings can exert adverse effects on the international competitiveness of an economy as postulated by the Dutch Disease theory. Using Johansen Cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model and annual data from 1971 to 2008, this paper investigates the effects of remittances on the external trade competitiveness as measured by the movements of real exchange rate of the country. The results of the study suggest that the influx of workers' remittances significantly appreciates the real exchange rate and deteriorates the external trade competitiveness of Bangladesh. While increased terms of trade indicates similar adverse effects, openness in goods and capital markets and nominal devaluation improve the trade competitiveness of the country. Therefore, greater trade openness and channelling remittances to the priority investment projects can be powerful policy devices to improve the external competitiveness and avert 'Dutch Disease' in Bangladesh.
Time series panel data estimation methods are used to estimate cointegrating equations for the demand for money (M1) for a panel of 11 OECD countries. The effects of financial reforms are analysed with structural break tests and estimates for alternative sub-samples. Our results in the post-reforms sub-samples show that the income elasticity of the demand for money has decreased and response to interest rate changes has increased.
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