Background Little is known about the nature and durability of the humoral immune response to infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Methods We measured antibodies in serum samples from 30,576 persons in Iceland, using six assays (including two pan-immunoglobulin [pan-Ig] assays), and we determined that the appropriate measure of seropositivity was a positive result with both pan-Ig assays. We tested 2102 samples collected from 1237 persons up to 4 months after diagnosis by a quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction (qPCR) assay. We measured antibodies in 4222 quarantined persons who had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and in 23,452 persons not known to have been exposed. Results Of the 1797 persons who had recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection, 1107 of the 1215 who were tested (91.1%) were seropositive; antiviral antibody titers assayed by two pan-Ig assays increased during 2 months after diagnosis by qPCR and remained on a plateau for the remainder of the study. Of quarantined persons, 2.3% were seropositive; of those with unknown exposure, 0.3% were positive. We estimate that 0.9% of Icelanders were infected with SARS-CoV-2 and that the infection was fatal in 0.3%. We also estimate that 56% of all SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland had been diagnosed with qPCR, 14% had occurred in quarantined persons who had not been tested with qPCR (or who had not received a positive result, if tested), and 30% had occurred in persons outside quarantine and not tested with qPCR. Conclusions Our results indicate that antiviral antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 did not decline within 4 months after diagnosis. We estimate that the risk of death from infection was 0.3% and that 44% of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland were not diagnosed by qPCR.

John C Martin Foundation.

We sequenced the genomes of 3,615 strains of serotype Emm protein 1 (M1) group A Streptococcus to unravel the nature and timing of molecular events contributing to the emergence, dissemination, and genetic diversification of an unusually virulent clone that now causes epidemic human infections worldwide. We discovered that the contemporary epidemic clone emerged in stepwise fashion from a precursor cell that first contained the phage encoding an extracellular DNase virulence factor (streptococcal DNase D2, SdaD2) and subsequently acquired the phage encoding the SpeA1 variant of the streptococcal pyrogenic exotoxin A superantigen. The SpeA2 toxin variant evolved from SpeA1 by a single-nucleotide change in the M1 progenitor strain before acquisition by horizontal gene transfer of a large chromosomal region encoding secreted toxins NAD + -glycohydrolase and streptolysin O. Acquisition of this 36-kb region in the early 1980s into just one cell containing the phage-encoded sdaD2 and speA2 genes was the final major molecular event preceding the emergence and rapid intercontinental spread of the contemporary epidemic clone. Thus, we resolve a decades-old controversy about the type and sequence of genomic alterations that produced this explosive epidemic. Analysis of comprehensive, population-based contemporary invasive strains from seven countries identified strong patterns of temporal population structure. Compared with a preepidemic reference strain, the contemporary clone is significantly more virulent in nonhuman primate models of pharyngitis and necrotizing fasciitis. A key finding is that the molecular evolutionary events transpiring in just one bacterial cell ultimately have produced millions of human infections worldwide.pathogenesis | phylogeography | mobile genetic element | flesh-eating disease | molecular clock